3rd December 2025

MACRO

Trump Cancels Fed Chair Finalist Interviews

The Trump administration canceled a slate of interviews set to start this week with a group of finalists to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve as President Trump again suggested he had made up his mind about who should lead the central bank. (Wall Street Journal)

GOP Wins Nashville House Seat

GOP candidate Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn on Tuesday night to fill the vacant House seat in a Nashville, Tennessee-area district, after national Republicans mounted an 11th-hour effort to shore up turnout. (Wall Street Journal)

US-China Agricultural Trade Accelerates

Shipments of US crops to China are accelerating after a tense tariff war had stalled trade for months, with at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December. (Reuters)

SEC Blocks Leveraged ETF Products

The US SEC has issued warning letters to firms including Direxion, ProShares and Tidal, blocking the introduction of products designed to deliver two or three times the daily returns of stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies. (Bloomberg)

Global Memory Chip Shortage Intensifies

A Reuters article notes that an acute global shortage of memory chips is forcing AI and consumer-electronics companies to fight for dwindling supplies, as prices soar for the unglamorous but essential components that allow devices to store data. (Reuters)

White House AI Coalition Fails on State Regulation Block

A coalition of tech companies backed by the White House’s artificial intelligence chief appears to have failed to persuade lawmakers to use a defense bill to block state governments from regulating artificial intelligence. (Bloomberg)

Harvard Increases Bitcoin Holdings

Harvard University increased its investment in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF to nearly $500 million last quarter. Bitcoin’s value dropped over 20% this quarter, potentially leading to a 14% loss on Harvard’s recent bitcoin purchases. (Wall Street Journal)

Japanese Bonds Slide Further on BOJ Tightening Prospects

Japanese bonds slid further on Wednesday, sending yields to multi-year peaks, as prospects of central bank tightening and big government spending plans weighed on investor sentiment ahead of a 30-year auction on Thursday. Reports note investors were surprised at the depth of the selling of bonds back to the BOJ at its regular buying operations. BofA Securities expects the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise to 2% by end-2026 on wage growth, fiscal expansion and rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Japan Wage Momentum Holds Strong

The Japan Council of Metalworkers’ Unions will push in annual negotiations for a salary hike that exceeds the record gain obtained in the previous round of talks, in the latest sign that pay momentum is holding up. Japan’s services PMI final reading was revised slightly up to 53.2 from the flash 53.1 reading, continuing its steady growth in November, driven by a faster rise in new orders and increased business confidence. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

EU Pushes Critical Goods Production

The EU is pushing for 70% of critical goods to be ‘made in Europe’. (Financial Times)

UK Political Developments

Nigel Farage has told donors he expects a deal or merger between his Reform UK party and the Conservatives ahead of the next general election, suggesting he does not believe he can sweep to power alone. (Financial Times)

Swiss Inflation Undershoots SNB Forecast

Swiss consumer prices were unchanged in November from a year earlier, with core inflation sliding to the weakest in more than four years. The outcome means that inflation this quarter is likely to undershoot the Swiss National Bank’s 0.4% forecast. (Reuters)

Australian GDP Disappoints But Domestic Demand Strong

Australian GDP grew by just 0.4% in the quarter, well short of the growth of 0.7% expected by economists. When measured from a year ago, the economy grew by 2.1%, up from 1.8% in the second quarter. However, the silver lining was roaring domestic demand supported by housing construction, government spending, consumer spending, and business investment. RBA Governor Bullock said Australia’s central bank is closely monitoring inflation pressures and is ready to act in the event they show signs of regaining strength, a hint that officials may yet have to pivot back toward tightening. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

Norway Budget Crisis Averted

Norway’s ruling Labor Party and its four smaller political partners reached a budget agreement, averting a government crisis. (Bloomberg)

Sweden Rate Hike Expectations Rise

Economists at Danske Bank are joining the most hawkish forecasters on the policy outlook for Sweden’s central bank, now expecting that faster growth and a rising inflation rate will prompt the Riksbank to start raising interest rates already late next year. (Bloomberg)

China Services PMI Weakens

China’s RatingDog general services PMI fell to 52.1 in November from 52.6 in October, marking the lowest level in five months. The result pointed in the same direction as the official gauge, which tumbled into contraction territory as a holiday boost faded. The PBOC may have increased purchases of government bonds in November to reassure the market, given the loose monetary environment and slowing stock market, Securities Daily cites Citic Securities chief economist Ming Ming as saying. (Wall Street Journal, Securities Daily)

China Commodity and Policy Updates

China’s independent oil refiners are boosting their intake of Iranian crude from onshore tanks and ships idling at sea after Beijing issued a fresh round of import quotas late last month. Chinese copper smelters are in stalemate with Antofagasta in talks to set a benchmark for the industry due to the prospect of negative fees for turning ore into metal. China said in a statement that it plans to boost inbound tourism air routes and increase direct flights, particularly from countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative. (Bloomberg)

China Property Market Intervention Considered

China could turn to mortgage subsidies to revive its housing market, Morgan Stanley said, estimating that Beijing may need to spend about 400 billion yuan ($57 billion) a year to lift battered consumer confidence. Some major Chinese commercial banks have removed five-year, large-scale certificates of deposit that carry a high yield from their offerings, in an effort to cut costs and offset margin pressure. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

CICC Strategist Calls for Stronger Yuan

CICC Chief Strategist Yanliang Miao said the combination of Chinese economic resilience, lower interest rates and capital flows means it is time to allow for a stronger yuan. He also says stimulus should focus on lifting household incomes to help address China’s deflation problem. (Bloomberg)

South Korea Triples FX Stabilization Bond Cap

South Korea has more than tripled its annual cap on foreign exchange stabilization bond issuance from its original plans, as authorities prepare to deal with a surge in dollar demand stemming from a trade deal with the US. (Bloomberg)

Indian Rupee Breaks 90 to Dollar

The Indian rupee fell past the key psychological level of 90 to the dollar on Wednesday, extending an eight-month decline as dollar outflows for trade and investment and a rush by companies to hedge against further weakness pummeled the currency. India is willing to amend an order requiring smartphone makers to pre-install a state-run cybersecurity app, the telecoms minister said on Wednesday, signaling a softening government stance following a backlash over surveillance fears. (Reuters)

Turkey Inflation Eases, Indonesia Stocks Hit Record

Turkish inflation cooled more than expected in November, clearing a path for the central bank to deliver a more sizable interest-rate cut next week. Indonesian shares hit a record high on Wednesday, outpacing most other Asian markets and underscoring investor confidence in the country’s growth prospects. Nomura Holdings has raised its recommendation on Indonesian stocks to overweight, citing attractive valuations and a domestic policy that’s supportive of growth. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

GEOPOLITICAL

Kremlin-US Talks Conclude Without Ukraine Deal

A five-hour meeting at the Kremlin between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner concluded without reaching an agreement to end the war, but the talks were “useful” and “constructive,” a senior Russian official said. Neither side was able to reach a compromise on territory. (Wall Street Journal)

EU Russian Asset and Gas Plans

Belgium dismissed the European Union’s legal proposal to tap frozen Russian assets to back a loan for Ukraine. The European Union has reached a deal to phase out Russian gas faster than originally planned, a move that aims to finally sever ties between the bloc and its once-primary energy supplier. (Bloomberg)

Ukraine Expands Energy Infrastructure Campaign

Ukraine has expanded its campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure, targeting its shadow fleet and oil terminals in the Black Sea. (Wall Street Journal)

Rubio Doubts Maduro Deal

Secretary of State Marco Rubio cast doubt on the possibility that the US could negotiate a deal with Nicolas Maduro to get him to stop drug traffickers, saying the Venezuelan leader has repeatedly broken commitments over the years. (Bloomberg)

China Flexes Global Influence

A Wall Street Journal article notes China is flexing its muscles, showing new confidence fueled by a belief that President Trump’s retreat from overseas commitments and his focus on the Western Hemisphere and trade deals create unique opportunities for Beijing. (Wall Street Journal)

South Korea Neutral on China-Japan Dispute

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Wednesday he would not take sides in the recent diplomatic dispute between China and Japan. (Reuters)

US Legislation Forces Taiwan Engagement Review

US President Trump signed into law a measure forcing the US State Department to review guidelines for the country’s engagement with Taiwan, amid escalating concerns that China could move against the self-governing island. (Bloomberg)

Taiwan and China Military Developments

China’s military sometimes simulates attacks on foreign naval vessels in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan shares intelligence with international partners when they operate in those waters, a senior Taiwan security official said on Wednesday. China has upgraded surveillance and electronic warfare systems across several occupied reefs in the disputed South China Sea as it seeks to strengthen its defenses and expand intelligence capabilities, a new report shows. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Israel Hands Over Arrow 3 to Germany

Israel will complete the handover of the Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile defense system to Germany on Wednesday, marking the first time another country will have independent access to the high-end military asset. (Bloomberg)

Turkey May Reopen Armenia Border

Turkey is considering reopening its land border with Armenia in the next six months, doing away with Europe’s last closed frontier of the Cold War-era and paving the way to revived trade in the Caucasus. (Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Marvell Acquires Celestial AI for $3.25 Billion

Marvell Technology agreed to acquire Celestial AI in a cash and stock deal valued at $3.25 billion in a bid to help the semiconductor company build out its AI and cloud data center business. Celestial AI provides a form of data center infrastructure technology called photonic fabric, which Marvell said is needed to help AI servers operate more efficiently. (Wall Street Journal)

CrowdStrike Revenue Jumps, Shares Dip

CrowdStrike Holdings narrowed its sales outlook for the full year to the upside after third-quarter revenue jumped 22%. Shares were lower by a few percent in after hours trade. (Wall Street Journal)

Binance Names Co-CEO

Binance Holdings named co-founder Yi He as co-chief executive officer in the biggest change to its top leadership since Changpeng Zhao stepped down from running the crypto exchange two years ago. (Bloomberg)

Oracle Credit Default Costs Surge

The cost of protecting Oracle’s debt against default reached its highest level since March 2009, rising to about 1.281 percentage point a year. (Bloomberg)

China Vanke Bond Opposition Grows

At least three investors in a China Vanke bond maturing this month have signaled to the embattled developer that they will oppose a plan to delay repayment. Bearish bets on China Vanke climbed to a decade high in Hong Kong as investors wagered that the downward spiral in the developer’s shares will extend following its shock bond payment delay. (Bloomberg)

JingDong Industrials Hong Kong IPO

JingDong Industrials, a unit of Chinese online retailer JD.com, is aiming to raise up to HK$3.27 billion ($420.08 million) in its Hong Kong initial public offering. (Reuters)

Chinese Battery Part Makers Eyeing Price Hikes

Chinese lithium-ion battery part makers may raise prices by over 20% in a second round of adjustments, Shanghai Securities News reports citing analyst Chen Leiyu. (Shanghai Securities News)

Samsung HBM4 Supply to Nvidia Advances

Samsung Electronics is entering the final stage of supplying HBM4 (6th Generation High Bandwidth Memory) to NVIDIA. It is understood that starting this month, the company will begin the process of packaging and testing actual AI chips with final HBM samples. (ZDNet)

Airbus Lowers Delivery Target

Airbus said it was lowering its aircraft delivery target for the year to 790 from 820 due to a quality issue with metal panels on hundreds of A320 jets, a major blow to the group as it struggles to overcome supply-chain hurdles. (Wall Street Journal)

European Auto Sector Challenges

Hugo Boss forecast a decline in sales and earnings next year as the German fashion house seeks to recover from a challenging period by streamlining its product range and raising prices. ZF Friedrichshafen, a maker of gearboxes and other components for BMW and Volkswagen, has seen its debt refinancing costs surge, showing how the German auto industry’s struggles are cascading through suppliers. (Bloomberg)

Inditex Sales Accelerate

Zara owner Inditex’s sales accelerated in November, highlighting its resilience in the face of weakening consumer sentiment that’s hitting many of its peers. Shares soared. (Bloomberg)

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