28th January 2026

MACRO

Gold Surges Past $5,500 - Silver and Copper Also Hit Records

Gold surged above $5,500 an ounce as thin liquidity, a weaker dollar and investor flight from sovereign assets fueled a nine-day rally. Silver hit an all-time high. Copper climbed to a new peak on strong demand expectations.

The World Gold Council said global gold demand is expected to remain strong this year, driven by lower interest rates, bond market uncertainty and persistent geopolitical risks. Central bank purchases unexpectedly declined 20% last year as investment demand soared - funds and private investors have increasingly become the key driver of bullion’s rally.

The Hang Seng Gold ETF surged more than 9% on its trading debut in Hong Kong as spot gold rallied to a record just below $5,600.

(Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters)

Government Shutdown Averted

Trump and Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer moved to reach an agreement to negotiate new restrictions on federal immigration agents, potentially averting a government shutdown. ICE officers in Minnesota were directed to avoid engaging with “agitators” as they carry out the immigration crackdown.

(New York Times, Reuters)

Why Powell Won’t Say If He’s Staying

The Justice Department’s investigation into the Fed’s headquarters renovation has complicated Powell’s decision whether to leave when his term as Fed Chair expires, potentially stifling Trump’s ability to fill the board with new vacancies.

(Wall Street Journal)

Japan Election: Takaichi’s LDP Likely to Gain Majority

PM Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party is likely to increase seats and gain a majority in the lower house in the 8 February general election, a preliminary Nikkei survey showed.

(Nikkei via Reuters)

China Ends “Three Red Lines” Property Rules

Chinese property developers are no longer required to report monthly data related to the “three red lines” policy - an apparent end to rules which triggered the major debt crisis. Developer shares surged on the news.

China expects a record 9.5 billion passenger trips during the 40-day spring festival travel period, up from 9.02 billion last year.

(Reuters)

Other Macro Developments

UK house prices rose at a slower pace in 2025 as budget uncertainty weighed on demand. Brazil’s central bank kept rates at a nearly two-decade high but promised to start cutting in March. Singapore’s central bank held policy steady, forecasting hotter inflation and relatively solid growth.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

Trump Weighing Major Strike on Iran

Trump is weighing airstrikes on Iran’s leaders, nuclear sites and government institutions after preliminary discussions over limiting its nuclear programme failed to make progress. Options include strikes aimed at security officials believed responsible for killings.

Tehran vowed an immediate response to any US military action, with one top adviser to Khamenei threatening to target Israel. The biggest sticking point: the US demand that Iran limit its ballistic missile range. Iran has balked and said it would only discuss its nuclear programme. The US has not replied, leaving both sides at a dead end.

Iran’s parliament speaker told CNN the country is ready to negotiate - but only if talks are “genuine.”

(CNN)

EU to Sanction Iran, Designate Military Unit as Terror Organisation

EU foreign ministers will agree new sanctions against Iran today in response to its brutal repression of protests. Capitals are swinging behind designating its feared elite military unit as a terror organisation.

(Financial Times)

Starmer Meets Xi

UK PM Starmer met with Chinese President Xi to improve ties amid strained US-UK relations. The UK seeks a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China, following Canada’s recent easing of trade restrictions with Beijing.

(Wall Street Journal)

Carlyle Buying Lukoil’s International Assets

Russia’s Lukoil agreed to sell its international assets to US private equity firm Carlyle, weeks after the Trump administration blocked a previous deal with Gunvor.

(Wall Street Journal)

Other Geopolitical Developments

Talks between Denmark, Greenland and the US went well in a constructive atmosphere, Denmark’s foreign minister said. Germany plans to become the first European power to develop its own space-based missile detection capability to cut reliance on the US.

(Reuters, Financial Times)

EQUITIES

Meta Spending $135 Billion on AI - Shares Surge 10%

Meta reported record Q4 sales, beat guidance, and announced 2026 capital spending of up to $135 billion - about 20% higher than Wall Street expectations and nearly double last year. The company has no plans to slow its AI expansion. Shares surged 10% after hours.

(Wall Street Journal)

Microsoft Cloud Slows, Spending Hits Record

Microsoft’s spending surged to a record high but cloud sales growth slowed, sending shares down. Investors are concerned it could take longer than expected for AI investments to pay off.

(Bloomberg)

Tesla Profit Drops 61% - Investing $2 Billion in xAI

Tesla reported a 61% drop in Q4 profit after losing its edge as the world’s leading EV maker. But shares rose after hours when the company announced it would invest $2 billion in Musk’s AI firm. Tesla plans to more than double capex to over $20 billion - mostly for Cybercab, Optimus robots, semi-trucks, batteries and lithium production.

(Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft in Talks for $60 Billion OpenAI Investment

Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion, Amazon potentially more than $20 billion, and Microsoft less than $10 billion in OpenAI. The ChatGPT maker is close to receiving term sheets from all three.

Nvidia helped China’s DeepSeek hone AI models later used by the Chinese military, according to a US House committee chairman. Jensen Huang said the licence for H200 sales to China “is being finalised.”

(The Information via Reuters, Reuters)

Samsung Chip Profits Surge 5x

Samsung’s chip unit blew past expectations with more than five-fold profit gain in Q4. The company announced a $2.5 billion buyback and forecast a worsening chip shortage this year driven by the AI boom. Both Samsung and SK Hynix said they’ll increase capex “substantially.”

(Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times)

Other Tech Earnings

ServiceNow gave stronger-than-expected sales guidance but failed to reduce anxieties that AI will disrupt its business. SAP’s cloud backlog slipped to a level the CEO previously called a “disappointment.” IBM reported sales that topped estimates on strong software growth. Nokia reported a sharp rise in network infrastructure sales on surging AI and data centre demand.

(Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

Toyota Sells Record 11.3 Million Vehicles

Toyota sold a record 11.3 million vehicles globally in 2025, retaining its crown as the world’s top-selling automaker for a sixth consecutive year. Hyundai reported sharply weaker earnings as US tariffs continued to weigh.

(Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

Other Equity Moves

Google seized control of domains operated by a Chinese company accused of installing unwanted software on millions of devices. Southwest topped analyst estimates as its turnaround gained traction. Levi Strauss said sales grew as its turnaround plan gained traction. Las Vegas Sands slumped on disappointing Macao results.

First Quantum is looking to sell its copper and zinc mine in Turkey. Alibaba’s logistics arm plans to merge its autonomous-driving unit with a Chinese robovan company at a $2 billion valuation. China plans to launch space-based AI data centres over five years - a challenge to Musk’s SpaceX plans.

Deutsche Bank reported Q4 profit ahead of expectations. Lloyds profits surged. EasyJet posted wider losses on route-opening costs. Glencore copper production slumped 11%. Roche expects sales and earnings growth this year. Sanofi announced a €1 billion buyback.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Reuters)

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