28th January 2026

MACRO

Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Remains Elusive

Trump has said for months he’s made up his mind about the Fed chair. But with each passing week without an announcement, people close to the process tell the WSJ they aren’t sure any of his four finalists fully meet his requirements.

Fed Governor Waller didn’t much impress Trump in an interview last month. Trump pressed Waller on his support for the Fed’s 50bp rate cut in September 2024 - a decision Trump has characterised as politically motivated to help Democrats before the election.

(Wall Street Journal)

Government Shutdown Looms

Senate Republicans and the White House are trying to broker a last-minute deal with Democrats who are demanding changes to immigration enforcement in the funding package. An agreement is seen as critical to averting a partial government shutdown.

Trump’s border czar Tom Homan met with Minneapolis’s mayor and Minnesota’s governor in a show of detente, as the White House sought to ease unrest after two US citizens were shot dead by federal agents.

(Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

Investors Betting Trump Will Run Economy “Hot”

An FT article notes investors are betting the Trump administration will run the economy “hot” ahead of midterm elections, with buoyant stocks and a weaker dollar reflecting expectations of strong growth and rising inflation.

(Financial Times)

Swiss Franc Surges to Decade High

The Swiss franc has surged to its strongest level against the US dollar in more than a decade as traders stampede into currency markets’ last “reliable” haven. The move poses an increasing problem for the Swiss National Bank.

(Financial Times)

Japan: BOJ Minutes Show Yen Caution

BOJ minutes from December showed board members have grown more cautious about the potential inflationary impact of a weak yen. A few members said developments in long-term rates should be monitored carefully. Japan’s Nikkei escaped losses as tech gains offset the drag from a stronger yen.

(Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

Hong Kong Hits 4.5-Year High

Hong Kong stocks climbed for a sixth consecutive session to a 4.5-year high, tracking Wall Street gains and led by energy and materials shares following gold’s rally. Private home prices rose 3.3% in 2025 - the first increase since 2021 - as rate cuts and declining inventory bolstered sentiment.

A WSJ article profiles the severe downturn in Chinese domestic consumption under the headline “The Deflation Doom Loop Trapping China’s Economy.”

(Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

Australia Inflation Signals Rate Hike

Australian consumer price growth remained elevated in Q4, strongly signalling the RBA will raise rates next week - or risk inflation running too hot.

(Wall Street Journal)

European Chemicals Investment Collapses

Investment in Europe’s chemicals sector fell over 80% in 2025 and plant closures doubled. Industry leaders warn the continent is becoming dependent on China for raw materials needed in automotive, healthcare and defence.

German consumers are feeling slightly less pessimistic amid rising economic and income expectations. ECB’s Kocher said the bank may need to consider another rate cut if further euro gains weigh on the inflation outlook.

(Financial Times, Wall Street Journal)

Other Macro Developments

The EU and Vietnam want to boost trade and investment in critical minerals, semiconductors and infrastructure as they upgrade diplomatic relations. The UK’s largest energy supplier Octopus says Britain should embrace Chinese technology in its energy market.

(Reuters, Financial Times)

GEOPOLITICAL

Gulf Allies Won’t Aid US Iran Strike

Saudi Arabia and the UAE say the US cannot use their airspace for a military operation against Iran, limiting Trump’s options for striking Tehran.

(Wall Street Journal)

US Intelligence Doubts Venezuela’s Rodriguez Will Cooperate

US intelligence reports have raised doubts about whether interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez will cooperate with the Trump administration by formally cutting ties with US adversaries.

(Reuters)

EQUITIES

ASML Posts Record Orders

ASML logged €13.6 billion in quarterly orders - nearly double the €6.95 billion expected - and said it expects healthy sales growth this year. CEO Fouquet said customers have shared “notably more positive” assessments of AI demand sustainability, reflected in a “marked step-up” in their capacity plans.

(Wall Street Journal)

China Approves 400,000+ Nvidia H200 Chips

China has approved its first batch of Nvidia H200 imports. ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have been cleared to purchase over 400,000 chips in total, with other companies joining a queue for subsequent approvals. The green light came during Jensen Huang’s China visit this week.

Rumours from the supply chain suggest Nvidia has tentatively agreed that its Feynman architecture platform, debuting in 2028, will cooperate with Intel - in addition to Apple.

(Reuters, DigiTimes via @jukan05)

SoftBank in Talks for $30 Billion More in OpenAI

SoftBank is in talks to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI, adding to its already large stake. The ChatGPT maker is seeking up to $100 billion in new capital at a valuation of as much as $830 billion.

Anthropic has hiked its revenue forecasts dramatically, projecting sales will quadruple to as much as $18 billion this year and hit $55 billion next year. The Claude maker is aiming to close the gap with OpenAI.

(Wall Street Journal, The Information)

SpaceX Eyeing $50 Billion IPO

SpaceX is weighing a mid-June IPO, aiming to raise as much as $50 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion.

(Financial Times)

Texas Instruments Surges on Strong Guidance

Texas Instruments expects earnings growth this quarter as data centres contribute more to sales and the industrial market recovers. Shares jumped after hours.

Japan’s Advantest hiked its operating profit forecast by 21.4% as AI spending drives demand for chip-testing equipment.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

China Vanke Gets Breathing Room

China Vanke received bondholder approval to delay repayments and obtained a fresh loan from a state-owned shareholder, giving the developer more breathing room amid its prolonged liquidity crunch.

(Wall Street Journal)

Other Equity Moves

Archer Daniels Midland agreed to pay $40 million to settle fraud claims over artificially boosting profits at its nutrition business. PPG Industries posted higher Q4 revenue driven by price rises and volume growth. Royal KPN reported higher Q4 profit and announced a €250 million buyback.

The head of Tata Consultancy Services dismissed fears that AI will upend the $300 billion outsourcing industry, signalling stabilisation after ChatGPT’s disruptive launch.

(Wall Street Journal, Financial Times)

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