26th November 2025

MACRO

BOJ Preparing Markets for December Rate Hike

The BOJ is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month, reviving previous hawkish language as worries about sharp yen declines return and political pressure for the bank to keep rates low fades. A change in BOJ messaging over the past week has shifted focus back to inflationary risks of a weak yen from earlier worries about the US economy. The recent weakening of the yen is increasing the likelihood of the BOJ raising its benchmark rate next month, according to Kazuo Momma, a former executive director of the central bank. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

New Zealand Cuts Rates, Signals End of Easing Cycle

New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates while projecting no further reductions next year, sending the currency higher on bets a 16-month easing cycle is all-but concluded. Policymakers voted 5-1 in favor of a cut, with the dissenter preferring no change. (Bloomberg)

Australia Inflation Exceeds Estimates

Australia’s core inflation exceeded estimates in October, prompting traders and some economists to wager the Reserve Bank’s next move is more likely to be an interest-rate rise than a cut. RBA’s Smith said low risk premiums in global markets have kept Australia’s financial conditions easier than they otherwise would be, warning that stretched valuations leave markets vulnerable to sharp corrections. (Bloomberg)

S&P 500 Forecast to Rise 12% by End of 2026

The benchmark S&P 500 US stock index is forecast to rise about 12% between now and the end of next year, propelled by a still-healthy economy, strength in technology-related companies and an accommodative Federal Reserve, according to a Reuters poll of equity strategists. (Reuters)

US Healthcare Policy and Costs

US Speaker Mike Johnson cautioned the White House that most House Republicans don’t have an appetite for extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, showing how hard it will be politically to stave off sharp increases in healthcare costs next year for many Americans. The US Medicare health plan said newly negotiated prices for 15 of its costliest drugs will save 36% on those medications compared with recent annual spending, or about $8.5 billion in net covered prescription costs. (Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

US-Taiwan Semiconductor Deal Negotiations

US President Trump’s administration is negotiating a deal that could commit Taiwan to fresh investment and training of US workers in semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced industries. (Reuters)

China Overtakes US in Open AI Models

China has overtaken the US in the global market for “open” artificial intelligence models, gaining a crucial edge over how the powerful technology is used around the world, according to a study by MIT and Hugging Face citing data on downloads. (Financial Times)

China Accelerates US Agricultural Purchases

China bought at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed since Tuesday, a day after the presidents of both countries spoke on the phone. US President Trump said he urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase the speed and size of agricultural purchases and said Beijing had “more or less agreed” to do so. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

China Stock-Bond Correlation Breaks Down

For the first time since 2022, Chinese onshore stocks and government debt are moving independently, losing their inverse relationship. (Bloomberg)

Japan Fiscal and Market Outlook

Japan’s 40-year bonds gained after a sale of that tenor met firmer demand, as an increase in yields attracted investors despite ongoing fiscal worries about PM Takaichi’s stimulus package. Japan’s Nikkei share average is seen rising about 7% by June next year, supported by strong corporate earnings and economic growth driven by government stimulus. Japan’s current fiscal year tax revenues are expected to top 80 trillion yen ($512 billion) for the first time, overshooting initial estimates by more than 2 trillion yen because of boosts in income and consumption tax revenues amid wage hikes and inflation. (Bloomberg, Reuters, NHK)

UK Budget Day

UK Chancellor Reeves is likely to announce tens of billions of pounds of new tax increases on Wednesday in a budget that puts her credibility on the line both with bond investors and with lawmakers demanding more welfare spending. (Reuters)

Brazil Interest Rate Outlook

An increase in Brazil’s benchmark interest rate Selic is no longer in the central bank’s baseline scenario, the institution’s director of monetary policy Nilton David said. (Reuters)

Industrial Metals Markets Tighten

The global silver market faces a fresh risk after Chinese stockpiles sank to the lowest in a decade, with a huge volume recently shipped to London to ease a squeeze that drove prices to a record. Copper rose as Chilean producer Codelco pushed for a huge hike in its annual premium and a weaker dollar made metals more attractive. China “firmly opposes” zero or negative processing fees for copper smelters and is urging the global industry to confront a “structural contradiction” that has upended the market. (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

US Envoy to Visit Moscow

The Kremlin confirmed Wednesday that US envoy Steve Witkoff will visit Moscow next week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Washington presses negotiations on a plan to end the Ukraine conflict. The White House is defending Witkoff over a reportedly leaked conversation in which he told a Russian official that praising President Trump would help smooth over a call with Putin regarding the war in Ukraine. (AFP, Wall Street Journal)

China-Taiwan-Japan Tensions Escalate

China warned on Wednesday it would “crush” any foreign attempts to interfere over Taiwan, after Japan announced plans to deploy missiles on an island near democratically-governed Taiwan. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te announced plans for a “historic” $40 billion supplementary defense budget Wednesday, saying that China’s unprecedented military buildup required it to join US allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific in spending more to deter Chinese aggression. Japanese PM Takaichi said she hadn’t intended to get into any details of a Taiwan contingency in recent remarks that have been fiercely criticized by China. (Reuters, Washington Post, Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

OpenAI Projects $270 Billion Revenue Through 2030

OpenAI has projected that about 8.5% of its weekly active users, or 220 million people, will pay for a Plus plan in five years’ time. The company forecasts that chatbot subscriptions will generate about $270 billion in revenue through 2030, including about $87 billion in 2030 alone. OpenAI plans to increase its paying users by making enterprise-level deals with companies as more workers start using ChatGPT on their own. (The Information)

Meta in Talks to Use Google AI Chips

Meta Platforms is in talks to use chips made by Google in its artificial-intelligence efforts, a step toward diversifying away from its reliance on Nvidia. A deal could be worth billions of dollars, but the talks are continuing and may not result in one. (Wall Street Journal)

Dell Beats on AI Server Demand

Dell forecast fourth-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates, as increasing investments in data centers to support artificial intelligence boost demand for its servers, sending its shares up 4% in extended trading. (Reuters)

Foxconn Expands Wisconsin AI Investment

Foxconn Technology has secured approval to invest an additional $569 million in Wisconsin to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure, amid surging demand for AI servers from US customers. (Wall Street Journal)

Apple Set to Overtake Samsung in Smartphones

Apple may top Samsung as the world’s biggest smartphone maker in 2025, its first title since 2011, due to strong demand for iPhone 17 and a strong replacement cycle. Apple is expected to hold the title through 2029. (Korean press)

HP Cuts Jobs, Disappoints on Outlook

HP Inc. gave a profit outlook for current year that fell short of estimates and the company said it will cut 4,000 to 6,000 employees through fiscal 2028 by using more AI tools. (Bloomberg)

Uber Launches Robotaxis in Abu Dhabi

Uber Technologies rolled out driverless robotaxis in Abu Dhabi in partnership with Chinese autonomous-driving firm WeRide on Wednesday, following the tie-up they announced last year. (Reuters)

Robinhood Launches Prediction Market Exchange

Robinhood Markets said it is launching a futures and derivatives exchange with market maker Susquehanna International Group to expand its array of prediction contracts tied to sports, elections and other events. A Wall Street Journal profile notes CEO Vlad Tenev has shifted the company’s focus to aggressive, active traders, with 78% of Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue in the most recent quarter coming from crypto and options trading. (Wall Street Journal)

Abercrombie & Fitch Surges 35%

Abercrombie & Fitch’s shares surged 35% Tuesday after the retailer said trends are improving for its flagship brand and shoppers are continuing to flock to Hollister. (Wall Street Journal)

TSMC Extends Capacity Planning to Two Years

TSMC’s certainty over capacity needs now extends 2-years out instead of one, as the chip giant now engages contractors for new chip fabs or packaging plants 2-years ahead of time instead of 1-year previously. Many analysts now see TSMC’s capex hitting $50 billion or more next year. (CTEE)

SoftBank Raises $3.2 Billion, Completes Ampere Acquisition

SoftBank Group will raise about ¥500 billion ($3.2 billion) from retail investors at a coupon of 3.98%—the highest on a yen-denominated senior bond from the company in more than 15 years. SoftBank completed its $6.5 billion purchase of US chip startup Ampere Computing, adding another asset to aid its push into AI hardware. (Bloomberg)

Kioxia Dives on Share Sale

Kioxia’s shares dived more than 14% after a Bain Capital-backed entity unloaded $2.1 billion of shares in the Japanese memory chipmaker at a discount, stoking concerns about the lofty valuations of global AI-related firms. (Bloomberg)

Chinese EV Makers Under Pressure

Nio shares tumbled after the carmaker’s disappointing outlook for the fourth quarter fueled investor concerns about its ability to reach a break-even target as industry competition intensifies. Bearish bets on Li Auto’s stock have surged to a record ahead of third-quarter results, where the Chinese electric-vehicle maker is forecast to post the biggest-ever revenue decline since its listing. (Bloomberg)

US Government Negotiates 71% Discount on Novo Nordisk Weight-Loss Drugs

The US government has negotiated a 71% discount for Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy for patients enrolled in Medicare, the federal health insurance programme for the elderly. (Financial Times)

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