25th November 2025

MACRO

Fed Officials Signal December Rate Cut Opening

A Wall Street Journal Timiraos article highlights recent comments from Daly and Williams, who called for a December rate cut, as significant because they follow a period when officials who opposed a cut dominated the public debate. (Wall Street Journal)

Trump Launches AI Initiative

US President Trump signed an executive order, dubbed the Genesis Mission, to launch a government-wide effort to build an integrated AI platform to harness federal scientific datasets to train next-generation technologies. (Reuters)

Bitcoin Selloff Shows Signs of Easing

A Bloomberg article notes some metrics, such as the cost of purchasing downside protection and Bitcoin’s 14-day relative strength index, indicate that the level of stress has come down significantly and investors expect the bottom has been reached for now. (Bloomberg)

US-China Presidential Call Described as Positive

China’s foreign ministry said the United States initiated the call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The atmosphere of the call was “positive, friendly and constructive.” The head of the international department of China’s Communist Party, Liu Haixing, met with US ambassador to China David Perdue in Beijing following the phone call. An options market gauge showing the cost to hedge against declines or advances in the yuan has turned neutral for the first time in more than 14 years after a previous weakening bias. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

China Trade and Commodity Flows

China has extended its investigation into beef imports by another two months, giving global suppliers a longer temporary reprieve from potential trade restrictions as the domestic industry battles a supply glut. China’s exports of soybean oil to India are surging as weak domestic demand coincides with robust imports of soybeans from South America and the US. Seaborne shipments of liquefied natural gas to China in November are set to drop for a 13th straight month on an annual basis, extending a slump in purchases as domestic output and piped imports remain strong. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Japan Policy and Market Developments

“Call me anytime” was the message Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi said she received from US President Trump on Tuesday in their first phone call since Tokyo’s leader sparked a major diplomatic bust-up with China. Japan launched a scheme aimed at cutting wasteful government spending by reviewing existing subsidy projects and investment funds, a move the administration hopes will alleviate market concern over its expansionary fiscal policy. Japan’s Nikkei stock gauge erased most of its early gains to end nearly flat Tuesday as SoftBank Group tanked almost 10% on concerns about competition between OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini. (Reuters)

UK Budget Week Positioning

Traders are piling into bets that Wednesday’s Budget will push the pound lower against the dollar. Trading volumes in put options have outstripped those of bullish call options by more than four to one over the past week. Bloomberg notes gilts are riding their best rally since 2020 but run into budget reality check. The UK Treasury has asked banks to make public and prominent endorsements of the Budget this week, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to spare the sector from a tax raid. (Financial Times, Bloomberg)

UK Political and Policy Debates

A group of UK lawmakers is calling for PM Keir Starmer to introduce a new visa to help attract wealthy foreigners as well-heeled residents continue to flee the nation amid tax hikes. UK Green Party leader Zack Polanski is winning over voters with his pledge to tax the wealthy and increase borrowing to fund public services, but his ideas are alarming economists. (Bloomberg)

Australia RBA Rate Hike Warning

Australia’s central bank may shift to raising interest rates next year if price pressures remain stubbornly strong and the labor market tightens further, said Luke Yeaman, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. (Bloomberg)

Canada Trade and Pipeline Developments

Canadian PM Mark Carney is considering a trip to Washington early next month, which may provide an opportunity to restart talks with the White House about relief from certain hefty tariffs. PM Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have agreed to the broad terms of a deal that would support a new oil pipeline to Canada’s west coast. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

South Korea Consumer Confidence Surges

South Korea’s consumer confidence climbed to an eight-year high in November, supported by a trade agreement with the US that eased uncertainty over export prospects and by stronger-than-expected growth over the summer. (Bloomberg)

Iranian Crude Stockpiles at Sea Swell

The amount of Iranian crude held on tankers at sea has swelled to the highest in two-and-a-half years, reflecting slower demand from top buyer China even as exports from the OPEC member remain elevated. (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

US-Ukraine Peace Plan Negotiations Continue

Diplomats from the US and Ukraine thrashing out changes to a Trump-backed peace plan have left thorny decisions over territory to their countries’ presidents. French President Emmanuel Macron pushed back Tuesday against the terms of a peace plan Washington wants to negotiate with Ukraine, calling on Europeans to show strength and choose alone on the use of Russian frozen assets. Russia and Ukraine exchanged fire early Tuesday with heavy air raids on Kyiv and assaults on southern Russian areas, just hours after President Trump struck a positive tone on prospects for a ceasefire deal. NATO fighter jets were scrambled in Romania to protect its airspace as Russia attacked Ukraine overnight. (Wall Street Journal, Politico, Bloomberg, Reuters)

Russia Warns of Western Economic Crisis

Igor Sechin, the head of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft, said on Tuesday that sanctions imposed by the West on Russia and China will bring the economies of Western countries closer to economic crisis. (Reuters)

China Cuts Japan Flight Capacity Amid Tensions

The Chinese government has instructed the country’s airlines to reduce the number of flights to Japan through March 2026, signaling Beijing is braced for a protracted spat between the two nations. Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said that for the island’s 23 million people a “return” to China is not an option, responding to comments from Chinese President Xi Jinping to US President Trump. Taiwan welcomed President Trump’s decision not to publicly reference the island after his call with Chinese leader Xi, describing it as the “best result” for Taipei. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

Countries Pursue Sovereign AI Strategies

A Wall Street Journal article notes South Korea and others believe their homegrown tech sectors are strong enough to build up their AI capabilities, as countries seek to avoid overdependence on superpowers. (Wall Street Journal)

China-Hungary Trade Talks

China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held a phone call on Monday with Peter Szijjarto, Hungary’s minister of foreign affairs and trade, and discussed China-Hungary and China-EU economic and trade cooperation. (Reuters)

EQUITIES

Meta in Talks to Use Google AI Chips

Meta is in discussions to use Google chips (tensor processing units, or TPUs) in data centers in 2027. Meta also may rent chips from Google’s cloud division next year. Alphabet shares rose on the news while Nvidia shares moved lower. (The Information)

Michael Burry Stands by Nvidia Criticism

Michael Burry is standing by his criticism of Nvidia after a report said the leading artificial intelligence company pushed back on his analysis. (Bloomberg)

Zoom Beats Revenue Estimates

Zoom Communications reported quarterly revenue that topped analysts’ estimates, a sign of strength for the software maker’s expanded suite of business tools. (Bloomberg)

Apple Succession Planning

A Wall Street Journal article highlights internal names John Ternus, Craig Federighi, Eddy Cue and Greg ‘Joz’ Joswiak as potential successors to Tim Cook. (Wall Street Journal)

TSMC Expands 2nm Capacity

TSMC plans to build three more 2nm fabs in Tainan, south Taiwan, on top of the seven already planned for Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, as it scrambles to keep up with runaway demand for AI chips. The investment is estimated at NT$900 billion ($28.6 billion), or NT$300 billion per fab. TSMC Arizona had to shut for “at least a few hours” and “scrap thousands of wafers” after a power outage at industrial gas supplier Linde in mid-September. (Liberty Times Net, Culpium)

Chinese E-Commerce Debt Offerings

JD.com is looking to raise at least $1 billion through an equity-linked bond sale, in what would be the latest in a wave of recent debt offerings by Chinese e-commerce companies. Mainland Chinese investors are increasing their stakes in Alibaba Group Holding ahead of fiscal second-quarter earnings Tuesday evening, betting that the strong launch of its AI tool Qwen will help fuel future growth. (Bloomberg)

China Memory Chip Breakthrough

China’s strategy of hiring away South Korean semiconductor talent has paid off as ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) debuted advanced DDR5 and LPDDR5X chips with similar performance to chips from Korean giants SK Hynix and Samsung. Mass production of the chips is expected to begin next year. (Business Korea)

China Property Sector Stress

Some of China Vanke’s yuan bonds plunged in their biggest daily drop in nearly a year, as investor worries grow about the distressed property firm’s ability to repay debt. Private equity firm Gaw Capital Partners secured an extension to a property-backed loan that was due Monday, after last-minute talks highlighting the enduring impact of China’s property crisis. (Bloomberg)

Asian Auto and Tech Developments

Chinese automaker BYD again logged higher new-car registrations in Europe last month, as it continues to expand in the continent amid pressure in its home market. Xiaomi founder Lei Jun’s purchase of about HK$100 million ($12.9 million) worth of company stock may help bolster sentiment after shares tumbled more than 30% from the July peak. Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong met with the head of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries Tuesday to discuss cooperation in system networks and artificial intelligence. Samsung Electronics has reportedly launched mass production of its latest mobile application processor, the Exynos 2600. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Yonhap, DigiTimes)

Volkswagen China Cost Advantage

Volkswagen has said it can produce an electric vehicle entirely made in China for half the cost of doing so elsewhere. (Financial Times)

European Banking Restructuring

Dutch bank ABN Amro plans to slash thousands of jobs and sell its personal loans subsidiary as part of its new strategic plan to boost profitability and capital returns in the next three years. Several Japanese mergers in recent months and cheaper valuations are spurring bets among investors that more deals are on the way among Japan’s listed smaller banks. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

Commodity Supply Constraints

Lynas Rare Earths warned of unexpected production cuts after a series of power outages in Australia left the company short of raw materials for its refinery in Malaysia. Indian tycoon Gautam Adani’s $1.2 billion copper smelter in Gujarat is receiving only a fraction of the ore required to operate the 500,000-ton-a-year plant at full capacity, as a global supply squeeze tightens. (Bloomberg)

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