24th November 2025

MACRO

Trump Administration Prepares Tariff Backup Plans

The Trump administration is working on fallback options in case the Supreme Court strikes down any of his major tariff decisions, with the aim of replacing the levies as quickly as possible. The options include using Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act, which grant the president the ability to impose duties unilaterally. (Bloomberg)

Government Shutdown Cost $11 Billion

US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Sunday said the 43-day government shutdown caused an $11 billion permanent hit to the US economy, but he was optimistic about growth prospects next year given easing interest rates and tax cuts. (NBC)

AI Bond Issuance Pressures Markets

A Wall Street Journal article notes a flood of AI bonds is adding to pressure on markets, with prices of newly issued bonds sliding and adding to investors’ anxieties about stock valuations. (Wall Street Journal)

Japan Yen Intervention Debate Intensifies

Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said on NHK on Sunday. A Reuters article highlights that the holiday week could be prime time for yen intervention, noting past interventions have taken place during periods of low liquidity, allowing authorities to move prices more sharply. Early signs on Japan’s annual wage negotiations for next year point to another round of solid pay hikes despite profit pressure from US tariffs, bolstering the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further. (NHK, Reuters)

China State Investors Support Markets Amid Slump

Trading in eight Chinese exchange-traded funds—widely used by the so-called national team of state-linked investors—surged to nearly 29 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) on Friday, about twice the past month’s daily average, as the stock market slumped. (Bloomberg)

UBS Analyst Turns Bearish on China Property

John Lam, UBS Group’s head of China property research and a longtime contrarian, is retreating from his earlier bullish calls and joining his Wall Street peers in predicting that the country’s four-year real estate downturn is far from over. (Bloomberg)

China Defends Rare Earths Curbs at G20

China’s Premier Li Qiang defended his country’s rare earths curbs and unveiled a global mining initiative with friendly nations at the Group of 20 summit. The initiative aims to promote mutually beneficial cooperation and peaceful use of key minerals, and to safeguard the interests of developing countries. Li also pitched closer collaboration to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in new energy, smart manufacturing, biomedicine and intelligent driving. (Bloomberg, Xinhua)

South Korea-Taiwan Chip Tariff Cooperation

South Korea sees room for cooperation with Taiwan on US President Trump’s tariffs on chips, the country’s trade minister said on Monday. “Taiwan is also in negotiations, so there is room for South Korea and Taiwan to get the most favourable treatment through cooperation,” Minister for Trade Yeo Han-koo said. (Reuters)

EU Trade and Investment Moves

EU ministers are set to urge top US trade officials on Monday to apply more of the July EU-US trade deal, such as by cutting US tariffs on EU steel and removing them for EU goods such as wine and spirits. The EU is planning to tighten its foreign investment rules to ensure that Chinese companies do not gain advantage from the bloc’s open market without generating benefits for local workers and sharing technology. (Reuters, Financial Times)

French Budget Rejected

French lawmakers have rejected a first draft of the 2026 budget in the country’s fractured parliament, hampering Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s bid to find a deficit-cutting agreement. (Financial Times)

UK Budget Week Preview

The UK’s OBR will say growth is lower in 2026 and every other year of parliament on Wednesday at the budget, but the Treasury hopes to surprise with bigger than expected headroom. Chancellor Reeves’ budget tax raid on salary sacrifice schemes is set to raise £3-4 billion, hitting businesses and encouraging employers to cut pension payments to staff. Reeves said on Sunday she would freeze rail fares when she sets out her budget plan on Wednesday, aiming to help millions of commuters struggling with the cost of living. (Sky News, Financial Times, Reuters)

UK Business Concerns Mount Ahead of Budget

UK chief executive officers are bracing for Rachel Reeves to pile further costs on their businesses in her budget—and some are warning they’ll slash investment in the UK if she does. The head of a British employers group will accuse Reeves on Monday of ignoring them on issues such as energy costs and labour reforms and urge her to make “hard choices” in this week’s budget. Investors have warned Reeves against delaying fiscal pain, noting she is already struggling to meet her debt targets. (Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times)

UK Energy and Industrial Policy

The UK will cut energy bills by 25% for more than 7,000 manufacturers beginning in 2027 as the government attempts to charm businesses ahead of a tax-raising budget next week. The UK rolled out a critical minerals strategy designed to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers by 2035, with targets to source 10% of domestic demand from UK production and 20% from recycling. The UK has become the most expensive country in the world to build a nuclear power station because of a bewildering and unnecessary array of environmental, safety, and bureaucratic processes, according to a government review. (Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times)

Swiss Tariff Deal Limited Impact

A deal to cut US tariffs to 15% from 39% is helpful but not a “game changer” for the Swiss economy because the duties have only hit a small proportion of exports, Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Saturday. Consumer-price growth in Switzerland is expected to accelerate a bit, according to Schlegel. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Thailand Gold and Currency Policy

Thailand’s central bank plans to tighten reporting rules for gold transactions after rising bullion flows contributed to swings in the baht, prompting policymakers to seek better visibility into the market. Thailand’s newly-appointed central bank governor says the baht should be weaker to reflect economic fundamentals, and there is room to ease monetary policy further. (Bloomberg)

Oil Market Shifts on Sanctions and Supply

Russia’s flagship Urals crude is being offered to India’s refiners at the cheapest price in at least two years after US sanctions on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil upended a lucrative trade. The cost of hiring an oil supertanker on a benchmark route spiked to the highest in more than five years, as buyers sought alternatives to sanctioned Russian crude amid increased supply from Middle East and US producers. European natural gas dropped below €30 a megawatt-hour for the first time in more than a year amid discussions about a potential end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Bloomberg)

Energy Majors Return to Libya

The world’s biggest energy companies are returning to Libya as they hunt for new oil and gas reserves, nearly 15 years after the overthrow of Muammer Gaddafi pitched the country into political chaos that continues to this day. (Financial Times)

Singapore Inflation Accelerates

Singapore’s key inflation gauge accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in October suggesting strong economic momentum may be adding to price pressures. (Bloomberg)

India Reform Push

Indian PM Modi’s government plans to push through a dozen major bills in the upcoming parliament session to speed up reforms and boost investments. (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

US-Ukraine War Talks Progress in Geneva

The White House hailed what it called constructive talks with Ukraine in Geneva on Sunday, saying the two sides had modified the Trump administration’s proposed plan for ending the war with Russia. The declaration, which the White House labeled as a joint statement between the US and Ukraine, made clear that the two sides had work remaining to get to a final agreement. (Wall Street Journal)

US Escalates Venezuela Pressure

The United States is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days, as the Trump administration escalates pressure on President Maduro’s government. Brazil’s Lula said he plans to contact Donald Trump to express concern over the US military buildup near Venezuela, warning that the situation could destabilize South America. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

China-Japan Taiwan Tensions Escalate

Japan’s defense minister, visiting a military base close to Taiwan, said plans to deploy missiles to the post would move forward as tensions smolder between Tokyo and Beijing over the East Asian island. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it was “shocking” for Japan’s leader to openly send a wrong signal concerning Taiwan. Hong Kong’s leader John Lee said on Monday his government supported China’s diplomatic policy towards Japan and would closely monitor the situation and respond appropriately. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

Russia AI Executive Warns on Technology Power

Artificial intelligence will bestow vast influence on a par with nuclear weapons to those countries who are able to lead the technology, giving them superiority in the 21st Century, one of Russia’s top AI executives told Reuters. (Reuters)

Israel Strikes Hezbollah Commander

The Israeli military said it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in a strike on Beirut, as it pushes to keep the battered militant group from rebuilding following a cease-fire the two sides reached last year. (Wall Street Journal)

EQUITIES

Tesla Accelerates AI Chip Development

Tesla’s current AI chip in cars is AI4: “We are close to taping out AI5 and are starting work on AI6. Our goal is to bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months,” Elon Musk wrote on X. (X)

Bill Ackman Plans Double IPO

Bill Ackman is looking to take public his hedge-fund firm, Pershing Square, and a new investment fund simultaneously. He hopes to stage the unique double public offering early next year. (Wall Street Journal)

Moderna Becomes Most Shorted S&P 500 Stock

Moderna has become the most shorted company in the S&P 500, with its share price slumping to its lowest level since before the Covid-19 pandemic as people skip jabs. (Financial Times)

Alibaba AI App Passes 10 Million Downloads

Alibaba shares rose 5% in Hong Kong after it said its AI application Qianwen (Qwen) App surpassed 10 million downloads in its first week of public beta testing. (Reuters)

Chinese Chip Stocks Slide on Nvidia Export Reports

Shares of major Chinese chip makers slide to multi-month lows after a Reuters report on Friday that the US is considering letting Nvidia sell H200 chips to China. (Reuters)

Lenovo Stockpiles Components

Lenovo Group is stockpiling memory and other critical components to navigate a supply crunch brought on by the boom in artificial intelligence. (Bloomberg)

JD.com Supply Chain Unit Eyes Hong Kong IPO

JD.com’s supply-chain technology unit has started gauging interest for a Hong Kong initial public offering that may raise around $500 million in the coming weeks, setting it on course to complete a more than two-year attempt to go public. (Bloomberg)

Bayer Stroke Drug Shows Positive Results

Bayer said an experimental stroke-prevention drug showed positive results in a late-stage clinical study, a boost for the German company as it seeks to counter sales declines from aging blockbuster medicines. (Bloomberg)

BHP Walks Away from Anglo American

BHP Group said it wouldn’t pursue a takeover of Anglo American following new talks, closing the door on a deal that could have turbocharged its copper business and helping to clear the way for its UK rival to close a merger with Teck Resources. (Wall Street Journal)

Real Madrid Plans Historic Outside Investment

Real Madrid president Florentino Pérez has outlined plans to sell 5% of the club through a newly created subsidiary as part of a revolutionary push to bring in outside investors for the first time. (Financial Times)

Prosus Profit Surges

Dutch technology investor Prosus reported a 99% surge in its adjusted core profit, driven by strong performances across its digital services and e-commerce portfolio. (Reuters)

Daily Mail Acquires Telegraph

Daily Mail owner strikes £500 million deal for Telegraph. (Financial Times)

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