19th January 2026

MACRO

Trump Greenland Tariff Threat

Trump vowed tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain until the US is allowed to buy Greenland.

10% tariffs take effect February 1, rising to 25% on June 1, and continuing until a deal is reached.

Major EU states including Germany and France decried the threats as blackmail. France proposed responding with a range of economic countermeasures including the Anti-Coercion Instrument.

EU leaders will hold an emergency meeting in the coming days. Member states are discussing retaliatory levies on €93 billion of US goods.

EU lawmakers are poised to halt approval of the EU’s trade deal with the US struck last summer.

Danish Foreign Minister said Denmark would continue to focus on diplomacy.

Italian PM Meloni described the tariff threat as “a mistake” and said she told Trump what she thought. “He seemed interested in listening.”

Treasury Secretary Bessent said European “weakness” necessitates US control of Greenland for global stability.

(Reuters, Bloomberg, Truth Social)

Fed Chair Race

The candidacy of BlackRock’s Rick Rieder to be the next Fed chair has gained late momentum. Trump’s interview Thursday with Rieder went well.

Kevin Hassett said Trump may keep him in his current job, eliminating him from contention.

Citigroup says Kevin Warsh looks to be the front-runner. “Kevin Warsh likely supports further rate cuts, perhaps materially so, in exchange for a smaller balance sheet.”

(Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

US Domestic Policy

The White House is weighing an executive action to enact Trump’s call for a cap on credit card interest rates.

Trump posted that building a “New York Stock Exchange” in Dallas is an “unbelievably bad thing for New York.”

The SEC has approved new expirations for Magnificent Seven stocks, moving the market closer to daily expiries in single stock options.

The Pentagon has ordered about 1,500 active-duty soldiers in Alaska to prepare for possible deployment to Minnesota.

US lawmakers are preparing to advance a plan expanding the market for corn-based ethanol while scaling back exemptions for oil refineries.

(Bloomberg, Truth Social, Reuters)

Japan Political and Market Developments

Japan’s expected snap election is increasingly likely to lead to a consumption tax cut, as ruling and opposition party executives stressed the need to cushion the hit to households from rising living costs.

Japan’s new opposition party pledged to abolish the 8% consumption tax on food sales. The party will also aim to correct excessive yen declines and lower prices for daily necessities.

Most JGB yields shot to record highs on concerns that the election will lead to tax cuts that will further weaken the nation’s finances.

Singapore Exchange will introduce futures on longer-dated JGBs as trading heats up. 20-year mini JGB futures will be available for trading on Jan. 26.

Most Japanese households expect prices to keep rising for the next few years, reinforcing expectations for further BOJ rate increases.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

China Economic Data

China’s economy grew 5.0% last year, meeting the government’s target by seizing a record share of global demand to offset weak domestic consumption.

Chinese retail sales rose 0.9% in December from a year prior, down from 1.3% in November - the slowest growth since 2022.

Chinese fixed-asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025, the first annual decline in the data series dating back to at least 1992.

China’s new home prices extended their decline in December, underscoring persistent property sector strains.

China’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the birthrate plunged to a record low.

(Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

China Markets and Policy

A basket of ETFs owned by China’s “national team” saw another day of record outflows, adding to signs authorities are stepping in to curb bubble risk.

Chinese households are scouring for higher-yielding investments as roughly $7 trillion in time deposits come due this year. With rates sliding toward 1%, investors are weighing a move into stocks, wealth management products or insurance.

The PBOC has lowered the minimum downpayment ratio for commercial property purchases to 30%.

China has issued a draft law to strengthen its national reserve system.

China’s rare-earth product exports declined in December as investors monitor tensions with Japan.

China is expected to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged for an eighth straight month in January.

Hong Kong will sign a memorandum of understanding with the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

(Bloomberg, Reuters)

European Developments

The EU is moving to phase out Chinese-made equipment from critical infrastructure, barring companies such as Huawei and ZTE from telecom networks, solar systems and security scanners.

ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said policymakers shouldn’t be “naive” to think Europe isn’t already “at war” with Russia.

(Financial Times)

UK Developments

UK asking prices for residential property rose at a record pace in January, suggesting market sentiment is rebounding.

Britain is seeing early signs of a long-awaited turnaround in productivity, with output per hour worked rising at a pace not seen since before the financial crisis.

Reform UK has announced the second defection of a sitting lawmaker in a week, as Andrew Rosindell joined from the Conservatives.

The government will unveil plans for a radical overhaul of the way mergers are scrutinised, including reforms that could entrench the power of the competition regulator’s boss.

The redemption of a low-coupon note in January could lead to a significant amount of cash being reinvested in other gilts.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Sky)

Other Global Developments

Canada’s PM Carney said an investment promotion agreement with Qatar would be finalized by this summer.

Australia’s populist One Nation party has pulled ahead of the main center-right opposition for the first time.

A leading South Korean credit card company is selling a dollar bond in the local market, highlighting demand to diversify away from the won.

The Taiwanese dollar is expected to lose a crucial source of support as new accounting rules allow insurers to unwind FX hedges on as much as NT$3 trillion of overseas assets.

South Africa declared a national disaster after severe weather conditions led to deadly floods.

Chilean President Boric declared a state of catastrophe in two southern regions where wildfires have killed at least 15 people.

Money managers slashed bullish wagers on silver to the lowest in nearly two years.

Hedge funds turned the most bullish on Brent oil since April as unrest in Iran revived risk premium in crude prices.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

Iran Crisis

Trump on Saturday called for an end to Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei’s 37-year reign. “It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran.”

Iran’s president warned any US strike would trigger a “harsh response.”

An Iranian official said at least 5,000 people - including about 500 security personnel - had been killed in nationwide protests.

The Sunday Times obtained a new report from doctors on the ground saying at least 16,500 protesters have died and 330,000 have been injured.

Iran’s Prosecutor General has threatened participants with the death penalty.

Khamenei blamed Trump for weeks of demonstrations, calling him “criminal.”

The White House press secretary said nobody knows what Trump will do with respect to Iran beside the President himself.

(Politico, Reuters, Sunday Times, Axios)

Ukraine Negotiations

Ukraine’s peace negotiators arrived in the United States on Saturday for talks on details of a proposed agreement to end the four-year war with Russia.

The US and Ukraine agreed to hold additional talks in Davos as negotiations continue.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

Other Geopolitical

Trump is privately ramping up his focus on Canada, increasingly complaining about the country’s vulnerability to US adversaries in the Arctic.

The Trump administration is asking countries that want a permanent spot on his new Board of Peace to contribute at least $1 billion.

China is importing the most Russian Urals crude since 2023 at prices lower than Iranian oil.

Syria’s government and a US-backed Kurdish group agreed to end clashes with a new deal expanding the regime’s control over oil and gas fields.

Israel is publicly pushing back against the makeup of a US committee created to oversee Gaza.

(NBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

EQUITIES

Anthropic Raising at $350 Billion Valuation

Anthropic is aiming to raise $25 billion or more in a deal valuing the company at $350 billion - more than doubling its $170 billion valuation from four months ago.

Microsoft and Nvidia have committed to invest up to $15 billion, with VCs and other investors contributing another $10 billion or more.

(Financial Times)

Musk vs OpenAI

Elon Musk is seeking up to $134 billion from OpenAI and Microsoft, saying he deserves the “wrongful gains” from his early support.

OpenAI called it an “unserious demand” and part of his “harassment campaign.”

(Reuters)

Trump vs JPMorgan

Trump said he’ll be “suing JPMorgan Chase over the next two weeks for incorrectly and inappropriately debanking me” after the January 6 protests.

(Truth Social)

Nvidia H200 Production Paused

Suppliers of parts for Nvidia’s H200 chips have paused production after Chinese customs blocked shipments.

Nvidia had expected more than 1 million orders from Chinese clients and suppliers had been working around the clock for deliveries planned for March.

Nvidia Rubin-based AI servers will begin shipping in August 2026, in small volume.

(Financial Times, CTEE)

Apple China Comeback

Apple retook the top spot in China after iPhone shipments jumped 28% during the holiday quarter despite a worsening memory chip shortage.

(Bloomberg)

Micron Taiwan Deal

Micron has signed a letter of intent to buy a fabrication site in Taiwan from Powerchip Semiconductor for $1.8 billion to expand memory chip production.

An ongoing memory chip shortage has accelerated over the past quarter and will last beyond this year due to AI infrastructure demand.

(Bloomberg)

Tesla Chip Development

Tesla is almost finished with the design of the AI5 chip for its full self-driving system and is in the early stages of developing AI6. Tesla is aiming for a nine-month design cycle for future iterations.

Tesla is poised to be one of the first automakers to benefit from Canada’s move to remove 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.

(X, Reuters)

Google Antitrust Appeal

Google is appealing a landmark antitrust decision that the company illegally monopolised online search and search advertising, a move that will likely delay implementation of changes to its business.

(Bloomberg)

Elliott vs Toyota Industries

Activist investor Elliott said the Toyota Group’s bid to take Toyota Industries private undervalues the forklift maker by almost 40% and proposed a growth plan that would more than double the company’s value by 2028.

(Reuters)

Samsung Foundry Recovery

Samsung Electronics’ foundry business is entering a phase of gradual utilization rate recovery. The increase in wafer starts across both advanced and mainstream processes is taking effect.

(ZDNet)

Other Notable Moves

ASM International reported preliminary Q4 bookings above market estimates, backed by a rebound in orders from China.

(Reuters)

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