17th March 2026

MIDDLE EAST

Operation Epic Fury Day 18: Iran Hits Gulf Allies; Trump Says He Wasn’t Expecting It

Iran has renewed attacks on US Gulf allies, and Trump has said the escalation was not something he anticipated. That is a striking admission given that sources are now reporting the administration was explicitly warned that Iranian retaliation against Gulf partners was a likely consequence of the Kharg Island strikes.

The gap between what the White House was told and what Trump publicly claimed he expected is going to be one of the defining political stories of this conflict.

Fujairah Under Fire: Tanker Hit, Shah Gas Field Ablaze, Port Disrupted

A projectile struck a tanker off Fujairah, according to UKMTO. A separate drone attack ignited a fire at Abu Dhabi’s Shah gas field. Fujairah port operations were also disrupted by the attacks.

The UAE temporarily closed its airspace as a precautionary measure before restoring normal operations. Fujairah was already damaged yesterday. The message is clear: there is no safe energy geography in the Gulf right now. The Hormuz bypass route is no longer a bypass.

Baghdad: US Embassy Hit by Drones and Rockets; Hotel Also Struck

Drones and rockets were fired at the US embassy in Baghdad. A separate drone attack struck a hotel in the Iraqi capital. No significant casualties were reported at either site, but the attacks represent a direct targeting of US diplomatic infrastructure in Iraq by Iranian-aligned forces.

US Troops Wounded in Iran War Now Approximately 200

The number of US military personnel wounded in the conflict has risen to approximately 200. The figure has been growing steadily since Day 1 and will increasingly frame the domestic political debate over the war’s costs.

Oil Jumps 3%; US Diesel Crosses $5 a Gallon

Crude prices surged more than 3% as the latest wave of attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure confirmed that supply disruption risk is not theoretical. The move in oil reflects each new attack on UAE and Iraqi infrastructure.

US average diesel prices have crossed $5 a gallon, a politically sensitive threshold. Diesel is the lifeblood of the American logistics economy; $5 diesel is felt immediately in freight costs and consumer prices.

Trump Furious as Allies Refuse Hormuz Escorts; Rubio Lines Up South Korea

Trump has publicly expressed frustration as key US partners continue to reject his call for allied warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Rubio has been working the phones, and his call with South Korea’s foreign minister produced an agreement that Hormuz is ‘key to the global economy’. That is agreement on the problem, not a commitment to send ships.

Rubio has also told US diplomats globally to push for allies to blacklist Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah.

Gulf States Pressing US to Neutralise Iran Permanently as Hormuz Crisis Deepens

Analysis from Reuters finds that Gulf states are privately pressing Washington not just to manage the current crisis but to permanently neutralise Iran’s capacity to threaten regional security. The ask goes significantly beyond what the current operation is framed as achieving and represents a maximalist position that could define the conflict’s end-state negotiations.

Iran FM: Last Contact with Witkoff Was Before the War Began

Iran’s foreign minister has said his last communication with US envoy Steve Witkoff occurred before the conflict started on 28 February. The disclosure underlines the complete breakdown in any back-channel communication between Tehran and Washington since the war began.

Iranian-American Designated Wrongfully Detained by Rubio

Secretary of State Rubio has formally designated Iranian-American Kamran Hekmati as wrongfully detained by Iran. The designation is both a legal and symbolic step that typically precedes more active US efforts to secure a detainee’s release.

Iran Arrests Ten Foreign Nationals in Northeast on Spying Charges

Iranian authorities have arrested ten foreign nationals in the country’s northeast on espionage allegations. The arrests follow the mass detention sweep of 500 reported on Sunday and are consistent with a broad internal security operation running alongside the conflict.

Iran Negotiating with FIFA to Move World Cup Games from US to Mexico

Iran is in negotiations with FIFA to relocate its World Cup fixtures from the United States to Mexico, citing the obvious impossibility of its players and supporters travelling to the US during an active war. The 2026 World Cup is co-hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico; any rearrangement will require FIFA to navigate complex logistical and political considerations.

Iranian Soccer Players Who Sought Asylum Now Training in Australia

The Iranian women’s soccer players who sought asylum in Australia and subsequently withdrew their claims are reported to still be in the country and training with a local club. The situation remains fluid amid the broader political context.

GEOPOLITICAL

Pakistan’s Air Strike on Kabul Hospital: Taliban Claims 400 Dead; Pakistan Denies

The Afghan Taliban says a Pakistani air strike on a hospital in Kabul killed 400 people and wounded 250. Pakistan has flatly rejected the casualty figures. The attack represents a dramatic escalation of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, which had already been escalating through cross-border strikes on Taliban-linked militant positions.

If the Taliban’s numbers are even partially accurate, this is a major humanitarian catastrophe. Even if Pakistan’s version is closer to correct, striking a hospital in a capital city is a significant event that demands international attention.

Zelenskiy Flies to London to Boost Drone Partnership with Starmer

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy met British Prime Minister Starmer in London to advance cooperation on drone technology. Ukraine has expressed interest in monetising its battlefield-tested drone expertise, and the UK has been one of the more willing European partners to engage on this front.

Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Southern Energy and Port Infrastructure

Russian attacks have damaged energy facilities and port infrastructure in Ukraine’s south, according to regional authorities. The strikes on port infrastructure are relevant to Ukraine’s Black Sea export capacity.

Russia Downs 67 Ukrainian Drones Headed for Moscow

Russian air defences intercepted 67 Ukrainian drones en route to Moscow. The attack follows Sunday’s 100-plus drone strike on the capital, indicating Kyiv is maintaining a sustained drone pressure campaign on Russian home territory.

Russia Claims 12 New Settlements Captured in Ukraine

Russia’s top general stated that Russian forces have taken 12 settlements in Ukraine as part of general advances. The claim, if accurate, represents continued incremental Russian territorial gains on the ground war front that has been overshadowed by the Iran conflict.

Russian Strike on Ukrainian Hydro Plant Cuts Water to Moldovan City

A Russian strike on a Ukrainian hydroelectric facility has disrupted water supplies to a city in Moldova. The attack illustrates how the Ukraine war’s infrastructure targeting has spillover consequences for neighbouring non-combatant countries.

IMF Raises Concern Over Ukraine’s Access to $8.1 Billion Aid Package

The IMF has flagged concerns about Ukraine’s ability to access an $8.1 billion aid package, according to Bloomberg. The financing is critical for Ukraine’s continued war effort, and any delay or blockage would have significant consequences for Kyiv’s economic and military sustainability.

Trump Delays Xi Summit by ‘a Month or So’; Bessent Says China Not to Blame

Trump has indicated he wants to push back the anticipated meeting with China’s President Xi by approximately a month. Treasury Secretary Bessent said any delay is not attributable to disputes with China, framing it as a scheduling matter rather than a diplomatic signal.

The delay casts uncertainty over the US-China managed trade framework that was being assembled in the Paris talks. Analysts say the pause gives Beijing less certainty about the terms it was negotiating toward.

North Korea to Convene New Assembly on 22 March to Consider Constitutional Changes

North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly is being convened on 22 March to consider constitutional revisions. KCNA did not specify the nature of the proposed changes. Pyongyang has been signalling interest in formalising certain governance structures that reflect Kim Jong-un’s consolidation of power.

Nigel Farage Declares War on the Political Establishment in Reform UK Blueprint

Nigel Farage has published what he describes as Reform UK’s governing blueprint, framing it as a direct challenge to the existing British political order. The document covers deportation policy, national identity themes, and pledges to ‘save’ traditional British institutions. Reform UK is polling competitively in national surveys ahead of the next general election.

Cuba: National Grid Collapses, Millions Without Power

Cuba’s national electricity grid collapsed, leaving millions of people across the island without power. Cuba has been experiencing severe energy shortages for months; this collapse represents an acute deterioration. The country imports the majority of its electricity-generating fuel from Venezuela.

Cuba Invites Exiles to Return and Invest

The Cuban government has invited exiles to return to the island and invest in Cuban businesses. The invitation is a notable shift in official tone, though analysts note it comes without the political liberalisation that most diaspora Cubans would consider a precondition for meaningful engagement.

Trump: I Can Do ‘Anything I Want’ with Cuba; ‘Honor of Taking It’

Trump made aggressive public statements about Cuba, including claims that he can take ‘any action’ against the country and that he would consider it an ‘honor’ to take Cuba. The statements will be read alongside the Cuban grid collapse as signals of escalating US pressure on Havana.

Palestinian Protester Leqaa Kordia Released from US Immigration Detention

Leqaa Kordia, a Palestinian protester who was detained by US immigration authorities, has been released. Her detention had been widely covered and contested by civil liberties advocates.

Nigeria: Triple Suicide Attack Kills at Least 23 in Maiduguri

A triple suicide bombing killed at least 23 people in Maiduguri, in Nigeria’s northeast. Maiduguri has been a persistent target for Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province attacks. The attack is the latest in a sustained insurgency that receives little international coverage.

US Jury Convicts Assad-Era Syrian Official of Torture

A federal jury in the United States has convicted a former Syrian official from the Assad era on torture charges. The prosecution is part of a broader effort to hold former regime figures accountable using universal jurisdiction mechanisms.

US Judge Blocks RFK Jr’s Overhaul of Childhood Vaccine Policies

A federal judge in Boston has blocked the Kennedy-led overhaul of childhood vaccination policies, ruling against the administration’s changes. The injunction is a significant setback for one of RFK Jr’s highest-profile policy initiatives as HHS secretary.

Supreme Court to Consider Trump’s Bid to End Protections for Haitian and Syrian Migrants

The US Supreme Court will examine Trump’s effort to end Temporary Protected Status for Haitian and Syrian migrants. The legal question has significant implications for hundreds of thousands of migrants currently in the US under the programme.

Trump Launches Anti-Fraud Task Force Led by Vance

Trump has established an anti-fraud task force to be chaired by Vice President Vance. The remit covers government spending and benefits fraud. Vance played down any suggestion of differences with Trump on the Iran war in separate comments.

Court Blocks Trump’s Sweeping Federal Funding Freeze

A US court has ruled that the Trump administration cannot implement a broad freeze on federal funding, handing the administration a legal setback on one of its more ambitious domestic policy moves.

Airport Security Officers: 10% No-Show on Sunday Amid Shutdown

Around 10% of airport security officers did not report for work on Sunday amid the ongoing Homeland Security funding standoff. The figure is a direct operational consequence of the congressional impasse highlighted in yesterday’s roundup.

Trump Proposal Would Make $5 Billion EV Charger Fund Unusable

The Trump administration has proposed changes that would effectively render a $5 billion federal fund for electric vehicle charging infrastructure unusable, according to Democrats. The proposal is part of the administration’s broader rollback of EV-related federal programmes.

Ousted Pentagon Official Hired for Intelligence Role

A former Pentagon official who was removed from their position has been hired for a new intelligence-related role, according to the New York Times. The appointment has drawn attention given the circumstances of their departure.

Major Storm System Cuts Power to 500,000; 12,500 Flights Disrupted

A major storm system battering the US Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and South has knocked out power to more than half a million homes and businesses. More than 12,500 flights were delayed or cancelled as a result, compounding existing aviation disruption from the security officer absences.

MACRO

RBA Hikes to 4.1% in 5-4 Split as Iran War Stokes Inflation Risk

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.1% in a tight 5-4 board vote, explicitly citing the Iran war’s inflationary impact through energy prices as a key factor in the decision. It is the first G20 central bank to raise rates directly in response to the conflict.

The RBA’s move puts pressure on the Bank of England and FOMC, both meeting this week, to harden their own guidance on inflation. A central bank acting means the conversation about whether the war is inflationary is settled.

Asia Stocks Attempt Rebound; Dollar Firms; Aussie Wobbles Post-RBA

Asian equity markets tried to stage a recovery but conditions remained fragile. The US dollar firmed on safe haven demand. The Australian dollar wobbled after the RBA’s surprise hike before partially recovering.

The broader FX picture reflects two competing forces: war-driven safe haven demand pulling toward the dollar, and a shifting rate outlook as central banks start to respond to energy-driven inflation.

BOJ Governor Ueda: 2% Inflation Must Be Backed by Wage Gains

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda reiterated that achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably requires wage growth to underpin price rises, not just energy cost pass-through. The statement is relevant ahead of the BOJ’s policy decision later this week and signals the bank is not treating oil-driven inflation as a substitute for structural wage-driven price growth.

Hong Kong Warns of Oil Shocks and Market Volatility from Middle East War

Hong Kong financial authorities flagged the risk of oil-driven shocks and elevated market volatility stemming from the Iran conflict. The warning reflects the acute sensitivity of Asian financial hubs to energy price movements and supply chain disruptions.

SEC Enforcement Chief Resigns After Six Months

The SEC’s top enforcement official has resigned after just six months in the role, the latest senior departure from the securities regulator under the current administration. The revolving door at the top of the SEC’s enforcement division raises questions about the consistency of its oversight agenda.

SEC Preparing to Scrap Quarterly Earnings Reporting Requirement

The Securities and Exchange Commission is reported to be preparing to eliminate the quarterly earnings reporting obligation for US-listed companies. If enacted, the change would be one of the most significant reforms to US public company disclosure in decades, fundamentally altering the rhythm of corporate financial transparency and market expectations management.

Blue Owl Tips UK Lender into Insolvency After Flagging Discrepancies

Blue Owl Capital pushed a UK lender into insolvency after identifying discrepancy concerns in its accounts, according to the Financial Times. The case is a cautionary example of the risks embedded in private credit arrangements with smaller financial institutions and highlights how stress in the leveraged lending market can materialise rapidly.

German Infrastructure Fund Failed to Lever Additional Private Investment

Germany’s flagship infrastructure fund has failed to generate the private investment it was designed to catalyse, according to the IW economic institute. The finding is significant for Germany’s economic strategy at a moment when the country is simultaneously trying to lift its defence spending and revive its sluggish growth trajectory.

EQUITIES

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Flags $1 Trillion AI Chip Revenue Opportunity Through 2027

Jensen Huang said at GTC that Nvidia sees a $1 trillion revenue opportunity in AI chips through to 2027, with the company pivoting its focus toward AI inference as the next growth driver after training. The inference market is significantly larger than training because it covers every query processed by every AI system, not just the one-time cost of building the model.

Nvidia also announced a partnership with Samsung on new AI chips, which sent Samsung shares higher.

Roche Expanding AI Computing Capacity with Nvidia Chips

Roche is scaling up its AI computing infrastructure using Nvidia chips. The announcement is a concrete example of how the AI-driven demand for compute is spreading beyond the pure technology sector into pharma and life sciences.

Samsung Workers Threaten Strike That Would Disrupt Chip Supply

Samsung Electronics workers are planning strike action that union leaders say would disrupt semiconductor production. Any production disruption at Samsung is significant given the company’s role as a major memory and logic chip supplier globally.

Tesla and LG Energy Solution’s $4.3 Billion Battery Deal Confirmed

The US government has confirmed a $4.3 billion battery manufacturing deal between Tesla and LG Energy Solution. The deal is part of the broader effort to build domestic battery supply chain capacity in the United States.

Rio Tinto Wins Resolution Copper Fight After Years of Court Battles

Rio Tinto has gained control of the Resolution Copper acreage in Arizona after prevailing in a protracted legal dispute. Resolution Copper is one of the largest undeveloped copper deposits in the United States, and securing it is a significant strategic asset given the critical minerals demands of the energy transition and AI infrastructure buildout.

Kone in Talks to Acquire TK Elevator in Major Industry Deal

Finnish elevator and escalator group Kone is reported to be in acquisition discussions with TK Elevator, the elevator business carved out of ThyssenKrupp. A deal would create one of the world’s largest players in the elevator and escalator sector.

JPMorgan Poaches Goldman’s Zhang as Co-Head of China Investment Banking

JPMorgan has hired Goldman Sachs veteran Zhang as co-head of its China investment banking operations. The appointment signals continued JPMorgan ambition to build its China franchise even as the broader US-China relationship remains complex.

OpenAI Cutting Back on Side Projects to Focus on Core Business

OpenAI is pulling back from secondary projects and initiatives to concentrate resources on its core AI business, according to the Wall Street Journal. The refocusing reflects the intense competitive pressure OpenAI faces from Anthropic, Google and others and the scale of investment required to maintain its position.

Beyond Meat Delays Annual Report; Preliminary Q4 Revenue Released

Beyond Meat has announced a delay in filing its annual report and released preliminary fourth-quarter revenue figures in the interim. The delay raises questions about the company’s financial reporting processes. Beyond Meat has been struggling to find a sustainable growth path as the plant-based food sector has cooled significantly from its peak.

Volvo Pulls the EX30 from the US Market Later This Year

Volvo Cars has announced it will discontinue the EX30 electric vehicle in the US market later in 2026. The decision reflects ongoing challenges in the US EV market, including pricing pressure from Chinese competitors and uncertainty around federal EV incentives.

Disney Appoints Debra OConnell as Chairman of Entertainment TV

Disney has named Debra OConnell, currently from ABC News Group, as chairman of its entertainment television operations. The appointment is a significant leadership move within one of Disney’s core content divisions.

JBS Workers Stage First US Meatpacking Strike in 40 Years

Workers at JBS, the world’s largest meat producer, have launched strike action at US facilities in what the union describes as the first meatpacking strike in the United States in 40 years. The strike has immediate implications for US beef and pork supply chains.

xAI and Grok Face Tennessee Lawsuit Over Alleged Minor Sexual Image Generation

Elon Musk’s xAI and its Grok chatbot are facing a lawsuit in Tennessee brought by parents of minors who allege the AI generated sexual images of their children. The lawsuit is a significant legal and reputational development for xAI and adds to growing regulatory attention on AI image generation.

Google in Talks to Buy Chinese Cooling Systems for Data Centres

Google is in discussions to purchase data centre cooling systems from China’s Envicool and other suppliers. The talks highlight the continued dependence of US hyperscalers on Chinese manufacturers for some data centre infrastructure components, a politically sensitive area that may attract regulatory scrutiny.

SK Group: Chip Wafer Shortage to Persist Until 2030

SK Group’s chairman said the global semiconductor wafer shortage is likely to continue until 2030, with the company seeking to stabilise memory prices in the interim. The long-duration forecast has significant implications for AI infrastructure buildout costs and timelines.

FAA Resumes Hearing on O’Hare Flight Reduction Plan Thursday

The Federal Aviation Administration will resume a public hearing on Thursday on its proposal to reduce flights at Chicago O’Hare International Airport. The plan is part of broader FAA efforts to manage congestion at one of the country’s busiest airports.

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