16th March 2026

MIDDLE EAST

Operation Epic Fury Day 17: Trump Eyes Hormuz Coalition and Kharg Island Seizure

Axios is reporting that Trump is actively exploring both a ‘Hormuz coalition’ of allied warships and a potential US seizure of Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, so taking it would be a dramatic escalation of both the military and economic dimensions of the conflict.

Japan’s PM Takaichi and Australia have both said they have no plans to send warships. Trump separately warned NATO it faces a ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to support US efforts in Iran, per the FT.

Dubai Airport Hit by Drone Attack; Fujairah Oil Loading Suspended

A drone attack sparked a fire near Dubai International Airport, forcing a suspension of flights. Operations have since partially resumed after the fire was brought under control.

Separately, the UAE’s Fujairah oil terminal stopped some loading operations following a drone strike on its facilities. Fujairah is a key export hub for crude and refined products transiting outside the Strait of Hormuz, making it a significant operational target.

Trump Rejects Ceasefire Talks as US Officials and Tehran Trade Predictions

Trump has rejected efforts to launch Iran ceasefire negotiations, according to sources cited by Reuters. US officials are predicting a quick end to the war, while Tehran says it can outlast its adversaries.

The gap between those two positions is stark. One side is calling an end imminent; the other is dug in for a protracted fight.

Iranian Missile Fragment Hits US Consul Residence in Israel

A fragment from an Iranian missile struck the US consul general’s residence building in Israel. No casualties were reported. The incident is a direct illustration of how close the conflict’s projectiles are coming to diplomatic infrastructure.

Zelenskiy Offers Middle East Drone Expertise for Money and Technology

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said Ukraine is willing to share its considerable drone warfare knowledge with Middle East allies, but wants financial compensation and technology transfers in return. Ukraine has developed some of the most advanced drone strike and countermeasure capabilities of any country currently in active conflict.

Iran Arrests 500 Accused of Informing for Enemy; Dozens More Held as Israeli Spies

Iran’s police chief announced the arrest of 500 people accused of providing information to enemy forces. Separately, dozens were detained specifically on allegations of passing intelligence to Israel.

The scale of the arrests suggests either a genuine penetration by intelligence services or a broad crackdown on dissent under the cover of security enforcement, or some combination of both.

Israel Kills 16 in Gaza and West Bank; Threatens to Strike Ambulances in Lebanon

Israeli forces killed 16 people in Gaza and the West Bank, according to medics. In Lebanon, Israel threatened to strike ambulances it accuses of being used by Hezbollah.

The Lebanon front remains active, with Israel and Lebanon expected to hold direct talks in the coming days according to Israeli officials, even as fighting continues.

Israeli Foreign Minister Denies Interceptor Shortage Amid Supply Concerns

Israel’s foreign minister pushed back on reports that the country is facing shortages of air defence interceptors. The issue is highly sensitive given the volume of incoming fire since the conflict began on Day 1.

Iran FM Says Supreme Leader Is Fine; Netanyahu Posts Proof-of-Life Video

Iran’s foreign minister stated there is no problem with the supreme leader, responding to circulating speculation. Israeli PM Netanyahu separately posted a video in response to rumours that he had been killed.

Pope Leo Urges Ceasefire; Macron Calls on Iran to Restore Hormuz Navigation

Pope Leo condemned what he called ‘atrocious violence’ in the Iran war and called for an immediate ceasefire. French President Macron separately urged Iran to halt its regional attacks and restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Both statements reflect the growing international pressure on all parties, though neither Tehran nor Washington has shown any willingness to step back.

Iran Wants ‘Serious Review’ of Gulf Ties; Denies Role in Saudi Oil Attacks

Iran has signalled it wants a substantive reassessment of its relationships with Arab Gulf states, while denying any involvement in attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. The statement is notable given how much of the Gulf’s posture toward the conflict has been shaped by historical tensions with Tehran.

Hamas Tells Iran Not to Target Neighbouring Countries

Hamas has publicly called on Iran to refrain from targeting neighbouring Arab countries, while affirming Iran’s right to defend itself. The message is a rare instance of Hamas seeking to moderate Iranian behaviour rather than simply expressing solidarity.

WHO Releases Emergency Funds for Lebanon, Iraq and Syria

The World Health Organisation has released $2 million in emergency funds to support health operations in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. The three countries are each experiencing significant humanitarian pressure as a direct result of the conflict and its spillover effects.

Lebanese Civilians Shelter in Rain as Displacement Continues

Lebanese civilians displaced by the conflict are sheltering under makeshift structures in heavy rain. The images and reports underscore the human cost of a conflict that is now in its seventeenth day.

Middle East War Disrupts Pharma Air Routes; Cancer Drug Supply at Risk

The conflict is disrupting pharmaceutical supply chains routed through Middle East airspace, with analysts warning that supplies of cancer drugs and other time-sensitive medicines could be affected. Air freight rerouting adds cost and time; for temperature-sensitive oncology products, it also adds risk.

US Identifies Six Service Members Killed in Iraq Plane Crash

The US military has identified the six service members killed when a military aircraft went down over Iraq. The deaths bring the conflict’s cost in American lives into sharper focus as the domestic political debate over strategy intensifies.

Swiss Reject Two US Flyover Requests for Iran War Flights

Switzerland has denied two US requests for overflight permission related to Iran war operations, while approving three others. The Swiss decisions reflect the country’s attempts to maintain neutrality while navigating intense pressure from Washington.

Japan to Release Oil Stocks; US Tells Allies to Buy American

Japan has announced it will release oil from strategic reserves as prices remain near $100. Washington is simultaneously pressing allies to source energy from the United States rather than other suppliers, adding a commercial dimension to what is officially a security request.

US Oil CEOs Warn Trump Energy Crisis Is Likely to Worsen

Senior oil company executives have privately warned the Trump administration that the energy crisis stemming from the conflict is likely to get worse before it gets better, according to the Wall Street Journal. The warnings reflect concerns that production disruptions and shipping constraints could push prices significantly higher.

Iran Women’s Soccer Players: Fifth Member Withdraws Asylum Claim, Three to Return Home

A fifth member of the Iranian women’s national football team withdrew her asylum application in Australia. Three of the players who had initially sought asylum are now returning to Iran.

The episode has drawn attention given the broader political context of the conflict and the risks facing Iranians who are seen as having embarrassed the state.

Oil Rises as Hormuz Threats and Facility Attacks Keep Markets on Edge

Crude prices extended gains as markets weighed ongoing threats to Strait of Hormuz navigation and the drone attacks on UAE energy infrastructure. The oil price remains highly sensitive to any development that suggests actual supply disruption, not just threatened disruption.

Asia Shares Cautious; Dollar Eases Ahead of Central Bank Week

Asian equity markets traded cautiously as the conflict continued and investors braced for a busy week of central bank decisions. The dollar eased slightly, though remained elevated versus most peers.

The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with the BoE and BOJ also meeting. None are expected to change rates, but the guidance language will be closely watched given the oil-driven inflation backdrop.

BoE Expected to Hold and Play for Time as War Drives Inflation Heat

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting and deliver cautious guidance that avoids committing to a timeline for cuts. The oil price spike from the conflict has materially shifted the UK inflation outlook, leaving the MPC with little room to signal easing.

BOJ to Hold Rates but Sustain Hawkish Bias Despite War Uncertainty

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged while maintaining a bias toward further tightening. The Iran war complicates the BOJ’s outlook by raising energy import costs for Japan, but the bank’s core inflation trajectory is seen as sufficient to sustain its direction of travel.

EU to Discuss Expanding Mideast Naval Mission; Germany Sceptical on Hormuz Role

European Union member states are set to discuss expanding the bloc’s Operation Aspides naval mission in the context of the Iran conflict and Hormuz threats. Germany has signalled scepticism about extending the mission into the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting Berlin’s caution about deeper military entanglement.

GEOPOLITICAL

Ukraine Strikes Moscow with 100+ Drones in Major Weekend Attack

Russia says Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Moscow over the weekend, with more than 100 drones intercepted by air defences. The attack is one of the largest Ukraine has directed at the Russian capital and signals Kyiv’s intent to keep pressure on Moscow’s home front even as the Middle East conflict dominates headlines.

Russian air defences shot down 65 drones headed for the city, the mayor reported.

US and China Wrap Paris Talks in ‘Remarkably Stable’ Atmosphere

Senior US and Chinese economic officials met in Paris to advance preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, discussing managed trade frameworks and agricultural deals. Sources described the talks as ‘remarkably stable’, a notably positive framing for a diplomatic process that has been fractious.

The Paris meeting follows Treasury Secretary Bessent’s engagement with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and is part of the pre-summit groundwork.

Philippines Rejects Beijing’s Claim to Full South China Sea Sovereignty

The Philippines has formally rejected Beijing’s assertion that it holds sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. Manila’s position reinforces the international legal consensus established by the 2016 arbitration ruling, which China refuses to recognise.

The rejection is a regular flashpoint in the Philippines-China relationship, but the timing adds regional tension at a moment when the US is already stretched diplomatically.

Kazakhstan Approves New Constitution with 87% Majority

Kazakhstan’s constitutional referendum delivered an 87.15% vote in favour of a new constitution, according to the election commission. The outcome consolidates President Tokayev’s authority and reflects his managed transition away from the Nazarbayev-era political order.

Pakistan Strikes Taliban Installations in Kandahar in Overnight Raids

Pakistan carried out overnight strikes on Taliban positions and what it described as ‘terrorist hideouts’ in Kandahar, Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban has condemned the action.

Cross-border strikes by Pakistan into Afghan territory have become an increasingly frequent feature of the relationship between the two countries, driven by Pakistan’s frustration with cross-border militant activity.

North Korea Fires 10 Ballistic Missiles During US-South Korea Drills; Kim Oversees Rocket Tests

North Korea launched 10 ballistic missiles in what it said was a response to joint US-South Korea military exercises. Kim Jong-un also personally oversaw test launches of multiple rocket launchers, according to KCNA.

North Korea held its Supreme People’s Assembly election on Sunday, a ritual exercise that consolidates party control rather than indicating any policy change.

Uganda’s Bobi Wine Leaves Country After Disputed Election

Opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, known as Bobi Wine, has left Uganda following a disputed election. His departure raises questions about the fate of Uganda’s opposition movement and the political space for dissent under President Museveni.

Congo Republic: Sassou Seeks Another Term as Turnout Stays Low and Internet Cuts Out

Voters in the Republic of Congo headed to the polls as incumbent President Denis Sassou Nguesso sought yet another term. Turnout was described as subdued, and internet access was cut during the vote. Sassou has ruled for the vast majority of the past four decades.

Hungary’s Rival Political Camps Stage Mass Rallies Before April Election

Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party and the opposition both staged major rallies ahead of the April 12 general election. The contest is the most competitive Hungary has seen in years, with opposition leader Peter Magyar posing a genuine challenge to Viktor Orban.

French Mayoral Votes Show Far-Right Strength; Marseille and Le Havre in Play

French municipal elections served as a barometer for far-right strength ahead of the next presidential cycle. In Marseille, an RN candidate was virtually tied with the leftist incumbent in the first round. In Le Havre, former PM Edouard Philippe took an early lead.

The results will be closely read as an indicator of whether the National Rally’s momentum from national politics is translating at the local level.

British Teenagers Resisting Australian-Style Social Media Ban

Research and reporting suggest British teenagers are actively resistant to the kind of under-16 social media ban Australia has enacted. The finding is relevant for UK policymakers who are considering similar legislation, and suggests enforcement would face significant practical challenges.

US ‘Pro-Family’ Group Linked to Anti-LGBT Campaign in Senegal

An exclusive investigation found that a US-based ‘pro-family’ advocacy group worked with Senegalese activists to push through anti-LGBT legislation. The finding adds to a pattern of American social conservative groups exporting their campaigns to African countries.

Canada and Nordics Meet on Military Procurement and Independence from US

Canada and the Nordic countries held a ‘middle power’ meeting focused on military procurement and reducing dependence on US security guarantees. The gathering reflects a broader trend among smaller Western nations to build more autonomous defence capabilities as confidence in US reliability has declined.

African Nations Cautiously Navigating Russian Military Recruitment

African governments are grappling with Russian military networks actively recruiting their citizens, often into Wagner-successor organisations. Most are tiptoeing around the issue, reluctant to confront Moscow directly given existing economic and security dependencies.

Rwanda Warns It May Pull Troops from Mozambique as Security Situation Deteriorates

Rwanda has warned it may withdraw its troops from Mozambique’s insurgency-affected Cabo Delgado province. Rwandan forces have been a key stabilising presence in the region; their departure would create a significant security vacuum.

Afghan Asylum-Seeker Dies in US ICE Custody

An Afghan asylum-seeker has died while in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to an advocacy group. The death adds to scrutiny of conditions in ICE facilities.

Trump: Cuba Talks Under Way, Action Possible After Iran

President Trump said negotiations with Cuba are ongoing and suggested that more direct action against Havana could follow after the Iran situation is resolved. The comment signals Trump’s intent to use the military momentum of the Iran operation as leverage in other theatres.

Trump Accuses Iran of Using AI to Spread Disinformation

Trump publicly accused Iran of deploying artificial intelligence to generate and spread disinformation as part of its information warfare campaign. The allegation, whether verified or not, further frames the conflict as operating on digital as well as physical fronts.

FCC Chair Warns Broadcasters While Resharing Trump Iran Content

FCC chairman Brendan Carr warned broadcasters about their reporting on Iran while simultaneously reposting Trump’s own comments on the conflict. The dual action draws attention to concerns about regulatory pressure on media coverage of the war.

Asia-Pacific Allies Sign $57 Billion in Deals with US Companies

US Interior Secretary Burgum announced that Asia-Pacific allied nations have signed approximately $57 billion in deals with American companies. The announcement is part of the administration’s effort to demonstrate that its foreign policy is delivering commercial returns.

EU Extends Russia Sanctions

The European Union has extended its sanctions regime against individuals connected to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The extension is routine but reflects the continued EU commitment to maintaining pressure on Moscow.

Amsterdam Jewish School Explosion Was ‘Deliberate Attack’

Amsterdam’s mayor confirmed that an explosion at a Jewish school was a deliberate attack. The incident follows a period of elevated antisemitic violence in the Netherlands and reinforces concerns about Jewish community safety in Europe.

Two Brothers Investigated in France for Planning Antisemitic Attack

French authorities have placed two brothers under formal investigation for allegedly planning an antisemitic attack. The case is part of a broader pattern of antisemitic incidents across France that has intensified since the Gaza conflict began.

Thiel’s Secretive Rome Conference Draws Vatican Attention

A private conference organised by Peter Thiel and held in Rome has attracted scrutiny from the Catholic Church. The gathering, which brought together conservative intellectuals and public figures, is being watched for signs of an emerging Catholic-aligned tech-conservative political network.

Nebraska’s Largest-Ever Wildfire Burns 600,000+ Acres

Nebraska is battling the largest wildfire in its recorded history, with over 600,000 acres burning across multiple blazes. The scale of the fire has prompted emergency declarations and evacuations across parts of the state.

Death Toll from Kenya Floods Rises to 62

Flooding in Kenya has now killed at least 62 people, according to police. The toll reflects the ongoing vulnerability of East African communities to extreme weather events.

Ethiopia Landslides Kill 125

Landslides in Ethiopia have killed at least 125 people, according to regional government figures. The disaster adds to a series of humanitarian pressures on the country.

Australia Deploys Military to Flood-Hit Northern Territory

The Australian government has deployed military personnel and assets to assist flood-affected communities in the Northern Territory. The deployment reflects the severity of the flooding and the limits of civilian emergency response capacity in remote areas.

Myanmar Parliament Convenes as Military Prepares New Era of Rule

Myanmar’s parliament has convened as the military prepares what it is framing as a new phase of political consolidation following the 2021 coup. The session is not a move toward democratic governance but a formalisation of military control.

Republicans Close University of Florida Chapter Over Antisemitism Allegations

The Republican Party has shut down its University of Florida chapter amid allegations of antisemitism. The closure is part of a broader reckoning on US university campuses over the boundaries of political speech and campus conduct.

Ukrainian Drone Debris Sparks Fire at Russian Oil Facility in Krasnodar

Drone debris from a Ukrainian strike started a fire at an oil facility in Russia’s Krasnodar region. The attack is part of Ukraine’s sustained campaign to target Russian energy infrastructure.

Madagascar Names Rajaonarison as New Prime Minister

Madagascar’s president has appointed Mamitiana Rajaonarison as the new prime minister. The appointment is part of an ongoing political reshuffle in the island nation.

MACRO

Dollar Eases Ahead of Packed Central Bank Week

The dollar softened slightly as markets positioned ahead of one of the busiest central bank weeks of the year. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the BoE and BOJ also in session. None of the three are expected to change rates, but in a $100-oil environment, every word of forward guidance will be picked over carefully.

China’s Economy Builds Early Momentum in 2026; Global Risks Mount

China’s economy is entering 2026 on firmer footing than many had expected, with industrial output and retail sales both beating forecasts for January and February combined. The data suggests domestic demand has held up reasonably well despite ongoing global headwinds.

The headline numbers look solid, but analysts are quick to note that China’s property sector remains a drag and that export-facing industries face a deteriorating external environment.

China Industrial Output and Retail Sales Beat Expectations in January-February

China’s National Bureau of Statistics released combined January-February data showing industrial output and retail sales growth above consensus expectations. The data is a positive signal for China’s domestic growth momentum heading into the rest of the year.

China New Home Prices Extend Decline in February

New home prices in China fell again in February, extending the property sector’s prolonged downturn. The continued decline is a headwind for consumer confidence and the broader domestic economy, complicating Beijing’s recovery efforts.

Taiwan Expected to Hold Rates Steady on Strong Economic Growth

A Reuters poll of analysts expects Taiwan’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, supported by the island’s solid economic growth trajectory. Taiwan’s economy has benefited from sustained semiconductor demand.

The Yen’s Safe Haven Status Is Fading

Analysis from Reuters examines why the Japanese yen is losing its traditional safe haven appeal. The combination of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy legacy, rising inflation, and structural current account pressures has eroded the yen’s reflexive safe haven bid that historically accompanied global risk-off events.

With the yen at a 20-month low against the dollar, the question of whether Tokyo will intervene is less clear-cut than in previous cycles.

Australia-Tesla Graphite Supply Dispute: Deadline Extended

Australia’s Syrah Resources and Tesla have extended the deadline to resolve an alleged default in their graphite supply agreement. Graphite is a critical material for electric vehicle batteries, and the dispute highlights the fragility of some critical minerals supply arrangements.

Australia’s Lynas Signs US Rare Earth Oxide Supply Deal

Lynas Rare Earths, the Australian miner, has signed a deal to supply rare earth oxide to US buyers. The agreement is part of the broader Western push to develop rare earth supply chains that do not run through China, which controls the majority of global refining capacity.

EQUITIES

UniCredit Moves to Cross 30% Commerzbank Threshold Without Taking Control

UniCredit has launched a formal offer to acquire a stake that would push its holding in Commerzbank above 30%, while structuring the approach to avoid triggering a mandatory full takeover bid. The move is the latest step in what has become one of European banking’s most watched cross-border deals.

German resistance to the UniCredit approach has been a persistent feature of the story, and the new offer will test how much political opposition remains.

Foxconn Q4 Profit Falls 2%, Missing Forecasts

Taiwan’s Foxconn reported a 2% decline in fourth-quarter profit, falling short of analyst estimates. The result reflects the challenging environment for electronics contract manufacturing, even as Foxconn expands its footprint in AI infrastructure and server assembly.

Micron Plans Second Chip Facility at Its Newly Acquired Taiwan Site

Micron Technology has announced plans for a second semiconductor manufacturing facility at a Taiwan site it recently acquired. The investment underscores Micron’s commitment to expanding its advanced memory production capacity outside the United States.

China’s Second-Largest Chipmaker Gets Ready for 7nm Production

China’s No.2 chipmaker, widely understood to be SMIC, is preparing to ramp up 7 nanometre production as Beijing accelerates its semiconductor self-sufficiency drive. The development is significant for the global chip supply chain and the effectiveness of US export controls targeting Chinese semiconductor advancement.

Nvidia to Show Off Next-Generation AI Advances at Its Annual GTC Conference

Nvidia will focus its annual GTC developer conference on what it describes as competition-beating advances in artificial intelligence. The company’s GPU dominance in AI training and inference has been a defining feature of the current technology cycle, and GTC is where Nvidia typically sets the agenda for the next twelve months.

Ride-Hailing App inDrive Posts 31% Revenue Growth, Plans Delivery Push

inDrive, the ride-hailing app that operates primarily in emerging markets, reported a 31% increase in revenue for 2025 and announced plans to expand into delivery services. The company is positioning itself as a broader mobility platform rather than a pure ride-hailing business.

JD.com Launches Joybuy in Europe to Challenge Amazon

Chinese e-commerce group JD.com has launched its Joybuy marketplace in Europe, directly targeting Amazon’s customer base. The entry is a significant escalation of Chinese e-commerce competition in European markets, which have already seen aggressive expansion from Temu and Shein.

Fertitta in Talks to Buy Caesars Entertainment for $6.5 Billion

Fertitta Entertainment, the hospitality and gaming group run by Tilman Fertitta, is in discussions to acquire Caesars Entertainment in a deal valued at approximately $6.5 billion, according to CNBC. A successful acquisition would significantly expand Fertitta’s presence in the US casino and hospitality sector.

Perpetual Sells Wealth Management Arm to Bain Capital for $350 Million

Australian investment manager Perpetual has agreed to sell its wealth management division to Bain Capital for $350 million upfront. The divestment is part of Perpetual’s strategy to focus on its asset management core and address balance sheet pressures.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell Steps Down After Eight Years

Miles Hurrell is stepping down as chief executive of Fonterra, the New Zealand dairy cooperative, after eight years in the role. Fonterra is one of the world’s largest dairy exporters and a significant player in global food commodity markets.

‘One Battle After Another’ Wins Best Picture at the Oscars; Warner Bros Watches the Paramount Deal

Warner Bros’ film ‘One Battle After Another’ won the Best Picture prize at the Academy Awards. The win is a moment for Warner Bros to celebrate, but the studio is simultaneously navigating the looming reality of the Paramount merger, which will reshape Hollywood’s competitive landscape.

Apple’s MacBook Neo Is the Company’s Most Repairable Laptop in More Than a Decade

Apple’s MacBook Neo has earned the company’s highest repairability score in over ten years, according to teardown analysis. The development reflects both regulatory pressure on Apple in Europe and a broader shift in consumer demand toward longer device lifespans.

Honda’s $15.7 Billion EV Writedown Is Just the Start of Its China Problem

Honda’s painful $15.7 billion writedown on its electric vehicle investments is the headline figure, but analysts say the deeper challenge is the structural threat from Chinese automakers. BYD and other domestic Chinese brands have eroded Honda’s position in what was once one of its most important markets, and the trajectory is not improving.

Bolsonaro Stable But Test Results Are Worsening

Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro is described as medically stable, but his doctors say his test results are deteriorating. Bolsonaro is under judicial scrutiny in addition to his health challenges.

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