14th March 2025

MACRO:

• China shares rallied amid rising speculation the PBoC could cut its RRR rate before the weekend and hopes of boosted consumption stimulus at a policy meeting on Monday. (WSJ)
• China's financial regulator urged institutions to boost support for consumption, promising in a statement on Friday to properly relax consumer credit quotas and loan terms as it offers long-term backing to make available large sums. (RTRS)
• Goldman Sachs says China’s construction activity is showing early signs of improvement as local-government debt stress eases, in a potential boost for commodities including steel. (BBG)
• Chinese state oil companies are shying away from Russian oil this month, with two importers halting purchases while two others scaled back volumes as they assess compliance following recent U.S. sanctions on Moscow, multiple trade sources said. (RTRS)
• China is considering slashing pay of fund managers who underperform their benchmarks as part of a broad overhaul of the nation’s $4.6 trillion mutual fund industry aimed at boosting long-term investments. (BBG)
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said hopefully, the US doesn't get a recursive Biden-flation. Said before the US can bring down inflation, it also wants to help affordability. Wants to bring the absolute price level down through deregulation and bringing down interest rates for house payments and car payments. (Newsquawk)
• US Vice President JD Vance said that you can never predict the future, when asked during an interview if he could rule out a recession. (Fox)
• US Secretary of State Rubio said they have seen a level of cooperation from the Mexican authorities that they have never seen in the past, but it's not enough. Said there has not been enough progress on the issue of drug trafficking. (Newsquawk)
• Canadian ministers emerged from a lengthy, high-level meeting between Canada and the United States on Thursday without immediate relief from U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports, but they said the discussion was constructive and that talks would continue. (RTRS)
• Two judges on Thursday blocked the Trump administration’s firing of probationary employees at several federal agencies, allowing thousands of workers to get their jobs back for now. (WSJ)
• Democrats Clear Way for GOP Funding Bill, Ending Threat of Government Shutdown. (WSJ)
• The Trump administration is planning to invoke a sweeping wartime authority known as the Alien Enemies Act in an effort to speed up deportations. (WSJ)
• Investors are the most bullish on Treasuries relative to stocks for at least three years, as Donald Trump’s tariff policies threaten to end the era of US exceptionalism, the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows. (BBG)
• The Yen weakened after Rengo, Japan's largest labour union, said first-round data showed average wage hike of 5.46% in FY25 (beneath the demand of 6.09%). That is the largest pay hike in three decades, albeit fairly consensus at this point and beneath some of the 6%+ expectations that had been floating around. (Newswires)
• Japan's core inflation likely decelerated in February from the previous month due to the resumption of energy subsidies, a Reuters poll showed, though the overall price trends will likely keep policymakers on track to raise rates again this year. (RTRS)
• UK economic output contracted unexpectedly by 0.1% in January (exp. +0.1%), pulled down by a sharp drop in manufacturing output compared with December. Output in the dominant services sector grew by 0.1%, marking the third straight month-on-month expansion. (RTRS)
• Fund managers at aberdeen group plc and Allianz Global Investors GmbH are trimming their bets that gilts will outperform European bonds as they brace for a series of economic tests in the UK. Citigroup strategists also closed their December recommendation to purchase UK bonds over French government debt. (BBG)
• German inflation slowed in February instead of remaining stable as initially reported, offering ECB policymakers more hope that cost pressures are fading. (BBG)
• ECB's Lagarde said a full-scale global trade war would hurt the US in particular and could re-energise Europe's push towards unity. (RTRS)
• ECB's Villeory said Bank will win the battle against inflation this year. (BBG)
• Greece could be about to rid itself of the last vestiges of its debt crisis with a credit upgrade that would lift it conclusively out of the junk territory it entered 15 years ago. (BBG)
• Poland may still reduce interest rates as early as July despite the central bank’s new projections showing a higher inflation path and hawkish comments by Governor Adam Glapinski, policymaker Ludwik Kotecki said. (BBG)
• Thailand wants to wrap up talks with the European Union on a long-awaited free trade deal by the end of the year. (BBG)
• South Korean investors loaded up on US leveraged exchange-traded funds this week, continuing to plow into a popular trade amid a rout that has plunged the market into a correction. (BBG)
• Trump’s administration has unlocked almost $5bn in funding for a LNG project by France’s TotalEnergies in Mozambique, potentially restarting work on one of Africa’s largest energy investments. (FT)
• Mosaic, a French high-speed trading firm, has urged Europe’s top markets regulator to close what it says is a loophole at futures exchange Eurex that gives some traders an “unfair” advantage by allowing them to bypass the monitoring system and bombard the exchange with orders. (FT)
• Morgan Stanley data shows Asian hedge funds weathered the March selloff in markets better than their U.S. counterparts, helped by the relative outperformance of Chinese stocks. (RTRS)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• Many analysts remain skeptical that Putin will ultimately sign off on the ceasefire deal or any other proposal. (WSJ)
• Ukrainian drone attacks triggered a massive fuel tank fire at Rosneft’s Tuapse oil refinery, one of the biggest in Russia. (BBG)
• The EU diplomatic service has proposed that EU countries deliver at least 20 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine this year, potentially reaching 40 billion euros. (RTRS)
• Hungary is ready to shoulder financing for Europe’s defense ambitions but it opposes using joint European Union debt to do so, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. (BBG)
• Diplomats from the G7 nations were set to negotiate late into the night over a joint statement to show a united front in Canada on Thursday after weeks of tension between U.S. allies and President Trump over his upending of Western trade and security policy. (RTRS)
• China's Vice Foreign Minister stated that China, Russia, and Iran held in-depth discussions on lifting sanctions, emphasizing the importance of ending all illegal unilateral sanctions. (RTRS)

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EQUITIES:

• Tesla will make a lower-cost version of its best-selling Model Y in Shanghai, aiming to regain ground lost during a price war in its second-largest market, according to sources. (RTRS)
• Tesla clarified that its partnership with Baidu is limited to map navigation and denies collaboration on enhancing ADAS in China. (Newswires)
• The NVIDIA GB200 server is somewhat behind schedule. Originally, 1,500 racks were planned for shipment in March; however, this figure was revised downward to 700 racks, with plans to gradually increase to over 1,500 racks from April onward. (UDN via @Jukanlosreve)
• Crown Castle said it will sell its fiber assets to two entities for $8.5 billion, after activist investor Elliott Investment Management pushed the wireless tower operator for changes. (RTRS)
• Compass is in advanced talks to acquire Warren Buffett’s real-estate brokerage business, the latest sign of consolidation among real-estate brokerages during a prolonged period of lackluster home sales. (WSJ)
• Ulta Beauty beat sales and profit expectations for the fourth quarter on Thursday, signaling a robust holiday season as shoppers flocked to its stores for products ranging from cosmetics to perfumes, sending shares up 7% in extended trading. (RTRS)
• Docusign rose over 10% in late trading after the electronic signature company reported earnings and revenue beats in its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter. (Silicon Angle)
• Foxconn reported a 13% drop in fourth-quarter profit as weak performance in its consumer electronics division offset strength in its AI server segment business. Expects Q1 performance to be better than the average level of the past five years, and sees strong Y/Y growth. It does not provide numerical guidance. (RTRS)
• Taiwan’s central bank governor contacted TSMC about the US$100 billion investment in Arizona over fears of the potential currency impact such a large outward investment might have on Taiwan’s foreign exchange market. (CNA via @dnystedt)
• Pegatron plans to build factories in North America due to tariff threats, and will be in mass production by the end of the year. (CNA via @dnystedt)
• DeepSeek has said it focuses on research over revenue in contrast to US tech firms. DeepSeek's founder declined interest from China’s tech giants and venture & state-backed funds for investment in the group for the time being. (FT)
• DeepSeek may find limited access to Nvidia’s new generation of more advanced chips a bottleneck in the long-run and could consider future partnerships that can help solve this issue. (FT)
• BMW expects to report slight sales growth this year but said earnings would remain flat as it faces headwinds from continuing challenges in China and costs related to tariffs and its supply chain. (WSJ)
• Daimler Truck said it aims to cut costs at its Mercedes-Benz Trucks unit in Europe by more than a billion euros ($1.09 billion) after posting a decline in fourth-quarter earnings amid weak European demand. (WSJ)
• UniCredit said it received authorization from the ECB to increase its stake in potential takeover target Commerzbank to up to 29.9%. (WSJ)
• Softbank and OpenAI are to acquire a Sharp LCD plant for JPY 100bln. (Nikkei)
• Shein’s executive chairman said he remains committed to plans to take the fast-fashion retailer public. (BBG)