14th January 2026

MACRO

Nvidia China Export Crackdown

The Trump administration announced Nvidia must meet new security requirements, including US supply and customer security checks, before exporting H200 AI chips to China.

Sceptics say the new rules illustrate the security risks inherent in approving the exports and that following them to the letter might mean no shipments get approved.

Chinese customs authorities told agents this week that Nvidia’s H200 chips are not permitted to enter China. “The wording from officials is so severe that it is basically a ban for now,” according to sources.

Exemptions are being discussed for R&D purposes and universities.

Trump said he thinks China can open its markets to American goods, asserting he had a good relationship with Xi Jinping.

(Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

Trump Targets Financial Sector

Wall Street is suddenly on the defensive with the President. Trump’s affordability push ahead of the midterms has turned some of the financial sector’s darlings into punching bags, with Trump targeting large investors, credit-card rates, executive pay, and stock buybacks.

Trump criticised a group of US attorneys at a White House event last week, calling them weak and complaining they weren’t moving fast enough to prosecute his favoured targets. The exchange came a day before federal prosecutors sent grand jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve.

(Wall Street Journal)

Fed and Interest Rates

A growing number of options traders see no Fed rate cuts in 2026.

A proposed ceiling on credit card interest rates would deal a heavy blow to the $70 billion market that bundles the debt into bonds, though investors shrug off the likelihood any actual policy comes to pass.

The Treasury basis trade has swelled to roughly $1.5 trillion, underscoring the need to closely monitor its size to avoid a repeat of the 2020 market eruption.

(Bloomberg)

China Trade and Markets

China’s trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, demonstrating manufacturing strength despite tariffs. Exports rose 5.5% while imports remained flat.

December saw exports rise 6.6% and imports increase 5.7%, exceeding forecasts.

China December and 2025 annual crude oil daily import volumes hit all-time highs.

China’s unwrought copper imports in 2025 fell to the lowest level since 2020 as high prices weighed on demand.

China’s rare earth exports in December fell 20% month-over-month to 4,392 metric tons. Full-year 2025 exports rose 12.9% to 62,585 tons.

Chinese stocks dropped after authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signalling unease over the pace of the rally. Investors must now provide margin equal to 100% of securities value, up from 80%.

Chinese commercial banks are accelerating capital replenishment through debt issuance and stock sales.

(Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, Securities Times)

Japan Markets and Politics

Japanese stocks posted a record-high close while the yen and bonds extended their declines as markets priced in a snap election that could pave the way for expanded fiscal stimulus.

Finance Minister Katayama said authorities will respond appropriately to FX moves, voiced deep concern about the yen’s sudden weakening, and said no options are ruled out.

Japan’s 5-year bond auction drew the weakest demand since August as election expectations reinforced concerns over increased debt issuance.

BOJ Governor Ueda signalled he still intends to lift interest rates when conditions allow.

Strategists see the 160-per-dollar level as a potential threshold for intervention, though officials focus on excessive volatility rather than a specific level.

Japanese manufacturers’ confidence slipped to a six-month low in January, with oil and steel companies particularly disheartened by lacklustre demand.

PM Takaichi is considering calling a snap election on February 8 after dissolving the house next week.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

South Korea

The South Korean won extended its decline toward its weakest level since the global financial crisis.

South Korea’s efforts to develop a native AI model highlight how hard it is to break reliance on US or Chinese tech giants.

(Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

UK Developments

BOE policymaker Alan Taylor said interest rates should continue to fall as inflation is likely to settle around 2% soon. “We can now see inflation at target in mid-2026, rather than having to wait until 2027.”

Early indicators suggest the UK economy struggled to bounce back after the budget, with a deepening labour market downturn the biggest threat. Official data Thursday is expected to show 0.1% growth in November.

City minister Lucy Rigby will travel to Brussels to seek areas of future UK cooperation with the EU on financial services, but stop short of any return to alignment with bloc rules.

The chancellor will promise up to £45 billion on a rail upgrade for northern England over the next two decades.

Britain stepped up support for offshore wind farms despite rising prices.

(Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times)

France Bond Sale

France’s latest bond sale will be a test of investor faith given lawmakers have yet to agree a budget and its deficit is risking what the central bank chief calls a “danger zone.”

(Bloomberg)

Ireland Data Centers

The Irish government is making a fresh push for data centers, outlining plans for special business parks where energy-devouring projects can have easy access to clean power.

(Bloomberg)

New Zealand

New Zealand employers added more jobs for the third month in four in November as lower interest rates and signs of economic recovery boost business confidence.

(Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

Iran Threatens Regional Bases

Iran warned regional countries it will strike US military bases in those countries in case of a US attack, following Trump’s threats to intervene amid nationwide protests.

(Reuters)

Venezuela Prisoner Release

The Venezuelan regime released a handful of American prisoners on Tuesday, a step US officials described as a positive move by the allies of deposed leader Maduro.

(Wall Street Journal)

Gaza Plan

The Trump administration will announce Wednesday that the US is moving to Phase 2 of its Gaza plan and will name a committee of Palestinians to temporarily run the bombed-out enclave.

US officials assess they can now shift from halting the conflict to governing and rebuilding the territory.

(Wall Street Journal)

UAE on Iran Tariffs

The UAE said the US imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran will impact its commodity supplies, including food, though details remain unclear on how Washington would apply the fee.

(Bloomberg)

Greenland

US senators proposed legislation to prevent the American military from occupying or annexing NATO territories, including Greenland. The bill would prohibit the Pentagon from using funds to “blockade, occupy, annex, conduct military operations against, or otherwise assert control” over NATO member territory.

(Financial Times)

Nexperia Dispute

A dispute over chipmaker Nexperia will reach a critical stage as a Dutch court considers whether it should open an investigation and withhold control from Chinese owner Wingtech over allegations of improper technology transfers.

(Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Saks and Neiman Marcus Parent Files for Bankruptcy

The parent of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus filed for bankruptcy protection, barely a year after an ambitious bet brought the two luxury retailers together.

(Wall Street Journal)

Pentagon Invests $1 Billion in L3Harris

The Pentagon said it would invest $1 billion in L3Harris Technologies’ missile business to turbocharge production.

(Wall Street Journal)

Tesla Ending One-Time FSD Purchase

Elon Musk said Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software will only be available as a monthly subscription after February 14. Currently owners can buy FSD for a one-time $8,000 payment or subscribe for $99/month.

(Reuters)

Cerebras Raising at $22 Billion

AI chip provider Cerebras is in talks to raise roughly $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, bolstering efforts to compete with Nvidia.

(Bloomberg)

Apollo Opening xAI Debt Trading

Apollo Global Management is trying to open up trading on a private debt deal supporting Elon Musk’s xAI.

(Bloomberg)

Starlink EU Concerns

European officials and companies are increasingly concerned over Starlink’s possible future control over a strategically sensitive slice of the EU satellite spectrum used for mobile services.

(Financial Times)

TSMC Capacity Changes

Orders for TSMC 3nm chip production continue to pour in despite January price hikes, prompting TSMC to change capacity plans. Three 2nm fabs meant for Tainan will now prioritise 3nm production, with 3nm capacity seen rising to 200,000 wafers per month from 160,000 now.

TSMC hiked prices 5%-20% to start this year, the first of 4 years of incoming price hikes.

(UDN)

Foundry Price Hikes Coming

UMC, Vanguard and other chip foundries are poised to raise prices 5%-20% for mature 8-inch wafer production due to strong AI-related demand for power management chips.

(CTEE)

SK Hynix StreamDQ

SK Hynix has brought out “StreamDQ” as its key weapon for the coming era of custom HBM. The core idea is to shift tasks previously handled by GPUs directly to the HBM itself, improving data processing performance.

(ZDNet)

Samsung DRAM Expansion

Samsung Electronics is expected to ramp up DRAM production this year to nearly 8 million wafers, a roughly 5% increase from last year’s 7.6 million wafers.

(Chosun)

Alibaba Qwen App Launch

Alibaba will hold a launch event Thursday to announce the release of the “Qwen app,” showcasing how AI will usher in an era of smarter work and task execution.

(Alibaba)

DeepSeek Efficiency Breakthrough

DeepSeek’s researchers proposed a new technique that makes AI models more efficient by allowing them to retrieve simple factual information without relying on a compute-intensive process.

(The Information)

Chinese AI Chip Independence

Chinese AI startup Knowledge Atlas Technology released a new multimodal model that it says is the country’s first to be fully trained using domestic chips, in a sign of progress toward meeting Beijing’s goal of reducing reliance on American technology.

(Bloomberg)

Trip.com Antitrust Probe

China is investigating Trip.com Group, the country’s largest online travel agency, over alleged antitrust conduct.

(Bloomberg)

BP Impairment Warning

BP warned of a $4-5 billion impairment charge in its energy transition business.

(Financial Times)

Coca-Cola Abandons Costa Sale

Coca-Cola has abandoned plans to sell its Costa Coffee chain after offers from private equity firms came in below expectations.

(Financial Times)

Bristol Myers Squibb Opdivo Update

Bristol Myers Squibb said about 5% of Opdivo patients are taking a new, easier-to-use version of the blockbuster cancer drug and said it’s on course to meet its goal of 30% adoption in two years.

(Bloomberg)

Trump Targets Home-Builder Buybacks

Housing finance chief Bill Pulte said home builders aren’t doing enough to lower housing costs, questioning their stock repurchases and suggesting penalties for noncompliance with affordability goals.

(Wall Street Journal)

Other Notable Moves

Toyota Industries’ buyout offer has been raised following investor criticism.

Japan’s nuclear watchdog ordered Chubu Electric Power to submit a report on falsified seismic data and paused its review of the utility’s reactor restart application.

Deutsche Bank is lining up a hiring push for UK advisers to the super-rich.

Vistry Group sold 9% fewer homes in 2025 after budget uncertainty created a “subdued market.”

Chinese gold mining companies are expected to see significant increases in 2025 financial results driven by record gold prices.

China’s vehicle sales are set to grow just 1% this year, cooling from 9.4% last year.

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