31st March 2025

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MACRO:

• Risk off after weekend reporting US President Trump is pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy ahead of April 2nd despite many close to him pushing back, reviving in recent days the idea of a universal tariff applied to most imports regardless of country, according to Washington Post sources. The WSJ also had similar reporting. (WaPo/WSJ)
• Trump said on Sunday that his reciprocal tariffs to be announced this week will include all countries and not a more limited number. (RTRS)
• Trump said on Friday that he was open to carving out deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs but those agreements would have to be negotiated after his administration announces reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. (RTRS)
• There is still widespread uncertainty within the Trump administration on exactly what the President will do on April 2nd. (Politico)
• Trump is reportedly indifferent to whether the economy tanks as a result of tariffs as he truly believes that it will rebound and that other countries will give in as they cannot withstand the pressure from the US, according to source close to Trump's inner circle. (Politico)
• Trump said a deal with TikTok's Chinese parent ByteDance to sell the short video app would be struck before a deadline on Saturday. (RTRS)
• Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices after the 25% auto tariffs are implemented, saying he expects consumers to buy American-made cards. (BBG)
• White House aide Peter Navarro said on Sunday that Trump's tariffs will raise $600 billion per year, or $6 trillion over a 10 year period. (Fox News)
• Trump said on Sunday he was not joking about seeking a third presidential term, which is barred by the U.S. Constitution, but that it was too early to think about doing so. "There are, there are methods which you could do it, as you know," he said. He declined to elaborate on any specific methods. (RTRS)
• Some Republicans have grown particularly uneasy about projections that suggest growth will be lower in the second quarter of this year because of tariffs. Some are wary that the tariffs risk complicating the GOP’s focus on quickly passing an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. (WaPo)
• US Senator Ron Johnson (R) predicted that Trump's tax-cuts and immigration agenda will not advance in the U.S. Senate unless the president and Republican leaders agree to slash federal spending to a level last seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. (RTRS)
• Goldman Sachs lifted its US recession probability to 35% from 20% amid the rising trade war .The bank also lifted its year-end 2025 core PCE inflation forecast to 3.5% year-over-year while also lowering its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.0%. (WSJ)
• Goldman cut its S&P 500 return forecast to -5% over three months (prev. 0%) and +6% over 12 months (prev. 16%) as it also cut its EPS growth estimates, seeing FY earnings now at $253. (Newswires)
• German Chancellor Scholz said on Sunday that Europe wants to cooperate with the US but the EU is ready to respond as one if Washington leaves it no choice by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminium. (RTRS)
• France, Ireland and Europe’s powerful farming unions are pushing Brussels to drop many food and drink products from its proposed retaliation against US tariffs. (FT)
• There is Increasing acceptance that the UK will not reach an economic deal with the US in time for April 2nd. UK PM Starmer is not expected to retaliate, especially while sensitive negotiations on economic deal and Ukraine are ongoing. (The Times)
• UK PM Starmer and US President Trump discussed "productive negotiations" towards a UK-U.S. economic prosperity deal in a phone call on Sunday evening, a Downing Street spokesperson said, with negotiations to continue this week. (RTRS)
• China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in a year in March, the NBS surveys showed, with new orders boosting production ahead of tariff implementation. The services PMI also rose more than expected. (RTRS)
• Four of China’s biggest banks will raise a combined Rmb520bn ($72bn) through share sales to investors including the Ministry of Finance, as Beijing seeks to shore up its vast banking sector against pressing economic woes. (FT)
• International bondholders have recovered less than 1 per cent of nearly $150bn of bonds defaulted on by China’s property developers since 2021, despite years of negotiations and nearly a dozen restructuring agreements. (FT)
• China will carry out a "strategic" reorganisation of automakers owned by the central government and encourage them to improve competitiveness and market share. (RTRS)
• South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, agreeing to promote regional trade as the three Asian export powers brace from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. (RTRS)
• The industry ministers of South Korea and China met on Saturday to discuss the evolving global trade environment and agreed to cooperate bilaterally as well as on multinational trade forums, the South's industry ministry said. (RTRS)
• Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met visiting European Trade Commissioner Sefcovic for a discussion that Sefcovic said on Saturday included a "level playing field" on trade. China's Commerce Ministry said the two sides had a frank, in-depth, and pragmatic exchange of views. (RTRS)
• Japan's factory output rose at a better than expected pace last month, but cooling retail sales growth and a slowdown in production expected by manufacturers in the near term pointed to the growing strains for an economy facing rising external risks. (RTRS)
• Japan's 10-year bond yield falls to 3-week low as BOJ rate hike bets ease. (RTRS)
• Japanese shares plunged, putting the Nikkei stock gauge on track for its worst quarter since March 2020, as export-related stocks slid on concerns about the global trade war. (BBG)
• Japan’s parliament is set to pass an initial budget after multiple revisions, easing some of the pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as he faces a host of domestic and diplomatic challenges. (BBG)
• Japan Finance Minister Kato said on Monday that he would communicate closely with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on foreign exchange. (RTRS)
• Japanese Pension fund has maintained its asset allocation targets in its portfolio. Maintains Domestic stock allocation at 25% and Overseas stock allocation at 25%. (Newsquawk)
• Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to revise the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act to give crypto assets a legal status as financial products. (Nikkei)
• Japan is preparing as much as $5.4 billion in additional aid for chip startup Rapidus, a move that reflects Tokyo’s growing resolve to secure semiconductor supplies. (BBG)
• UK job vacancies saw the fastest month-on-month growth in three years in February, according to data published by Azuna on Monday that contrasted with a largely gloomy outlook for the economy. (RTRS)
• UK business confidence held steady this month, matching February's six-month high and adding to tentative signs of an uptick in the economy in early 2025, a Lloyds survey showed on Monday. (RTRS)
• Moody's said the UK Spring Statement's measures do not change its view of the UK's credit quality and difficult fiscal consolidation prospects, and do not significantly change their expectations of high public debt. (RTRS)
• Goldman Sachs sees the ECB delivering an additional 25bps rate cut in July, along with prior forecast of cuts in April and June. (Newsquawk)
• A surge in Eurozone government borrowing costs as a result of Germany’s planned defence spending spree will intensify debt pressures on other countries in the bloc and could make it harder for them to mount borrowing campaigns of their own, investors have warned. (FT)
• Portugal cautious on joining Europe’s defence spending splurge. (FT)
• Germany's plant and equipment makers face a 2% decline in production in real terms this year as geopolitical disputes, U.S. trade tariffs and general uncertainty cloud prospects for a strong recovery, the VDMA association said on Monday. (RTRS)
• The political future of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen hangs in the balance as a court on Monday is set to rule whether she committed fraud and embezzled EU funds. (FT)
• Sweden and Norway’s currencies have become a favourite way for traders to bet on a European economic revival, outstripping other major peers since the start of the year as lawmakers across the region promise a spending spree. (FT)
• Norway should drop a ban that is preventing its sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, from investing in defence companies such as Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin and Honeywell, the two main opposition parties have said. (FT)
• Net flows into Australian ETFs tracking domestic equities are on track for their best quarter ever as investors pile into local shares amid a downturn in global markets. (BBG)
• New Zealand's business confidence softened slightly in March but the number of people expecting their businesses to improve in the coming year picked up, an ANZ Bank survey showed on Monday. (RTRS)
• New Zealand's central bank said on Monday it would review bank capital requirements this year following criticism of the regime for being too stringent and reducing competition in the sector. (RTRS)
• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday that she had a "fruitful meeting" with U.S. Security Secretary Kristi Noem. (RTRS)
• Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the country’s first line of defense against US tariffs will be negotiation rather than immediate retaliatory measures. (BBG)
• South Korean stocks declined on Monday, hurt by concerns over looming US tariffs and the removal of a 17-month long ban on short selling. (BBG)
• Thailand’s economic outlook is worsening after the deadly March 28 Myanmar earthquake, adding to pressure for another interest rate cut next month to support the sluggish economy, according to analysts. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• Trump on Sunday threatened secondary tariffs on all oil out of Russia after he said he was “very angry” and “pissed off” when Russian President Putin criticized the credibility of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s leadership, adding that the comments were “not going in the right location.” (NBC)
• Trump said on Sunday Ukrainian President Zelenskiy wants to back out of a critical minerals deal, warning the Ukrainian leader would face big problems if he did. (RTRS)
• The Trump administration is revoking a number of permits and licences that enable western oil companies to do business in Venezuela, as it ratchets up economic and diplomatic pressure on President Nicolás Maduro. (FT)
• Trump threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program. (RTRS)
• US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said America had begun upgrading its military forces in Japan to set up a “war-fighting” headquarters, as the allies attempt to build a more formidable deterrence against China. (FT)
• Mike Waltz is losing support inside the White House. Although Trump decided not to fire his national security adviser over the Signal group chat, Waltz’s position is tenuous, officials say. (WSJ)
• Germany should discuss easing sanctions on Moscow, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democrats has said, arguing that punitive measures were hurting Europe even more than Vladimir Putin. (FT)
• Greenland’s new leader has responded to Trump by telling the American president there’s no way the country will become part of the US. (Politico)
• Chinese state media on Saturday criticised Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison's plan to sell its ports near the Panama Canal to a BlackRock-led group, a day after China's market regulator launched a probe into the deal. (RTRS)

EQUITIES:

• Asian press reports souring demand from cloud providers on NVDA's latest Blackwell GB300 after the negative experience with the GB200, who are instead opting for Nvidia's older generation chips. Sources also suggest test samples for the GB300 may not be sent until the end of 2025, likely meaning mass production delayed until next year. (CTEE via Daniel Nystedt)

• Some large cloud customers are cutting or slowing down their AI spend from large cloud service providers such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft amid cheaper and more efficient models made available from companies such as DeepSeek. (The Information)
• The European Commission is expected to fine Apple and Meta this week for violating the EU’s digital competition rules, thrusting Big Tech into the escalating trade war between the US and the EU. (Politico)
• DeepSeek has become the fastest-growing AI tool globally, with its monthly new site visits exceeding OpenAI's ChatGPT, according to analytics platform aitools. xyz. (MktNews via @Sino_Market)
• Elon Musk's xAI has acquired X in a deal that values the social media platform at $33 billion and allows the value of his AI firm to be shared with his co-investors in X. (RTRS)
• Apple is clashing with Elon Musk in its push to eliminate cellphone dead spots with satellite technology. (WSJ)
• Blackstone is evaluating making a small minority investment in TikTok's U.S. operations. (RTRS)
• Car shoppers are rushing to buy new vehicles before April 3, when 25% tariffs on imported vehicles take effect. (BBG)
• The Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine official has been pushed out. (WSJ)
• TSMC could begin 2nm mass production at two Taiwan fabs by the end of this year, in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, which could see sales in the 3rd and 4th quarter each top NT$1 trillion, according to local media. (UDN via Daniel Nystedt)
• Property sales at Chinese developer Country Garden drop by over a third. (FT)
• The Trump administration has written to French companies holding U.S. government contracts ordering them to comply with an executive order banning diversity, equity and inclusion programmes. (RTRS)
• RWE signed an agreement with Norges Bank Investment Management for the latter to acquire a 49% stake in two North Sea wind projects. (BBG)

• Aviva is said to have revived "controversial plans" to cancel some GBP 450mln of its preference shares, a move initially attempted in 2018 but led to major backlash. (The Times via Newsquawk)
• Aston Martin expects U.S. tariffs to weigh on sales volumes this year and aims to raise 125 million pounds from an investment by Executive Chair Lawrence Stroll’s Yew Tree Consortium and a sale of shares in its Formula One team. (WSJ)
• AP Møller-Maersk has warned that plans for a shipping emissions trading scheme intended to fix the price gap between fossil fuels and green energy would only encourage the sector’s use of LNG. (FT)
• Japanese automakers, long competitive in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest market, are facing pressure to reassess production capacity as they grapple with a shrinking market and the rise of Chinese EVs. (Nikkei)

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