30th October 2025

TRADE

Trump-Xi Summit Delivers Major De-Escalation

US President Trump said after meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that the US would cut tariffs on Chinese goods as part of a broader framework to reduce trade tensions. The US will immediately lower fentanyl tariffs to 10% from 20% in exchange for cooperation cracking down on chemical exports used to produce the drug. Trump said China will purchase “tremendous” amounts of American soybeans and start buying immediately, adding the two countries agreed to expand agricultural trade. Trump rated the meeting “a 12 out of 10” and said Taiwan never came up. However, he didn’t discuss approving Nvidia Blackwell chip sales to China with Xi, though “they’re going to be talking to Nvidia and others about taking chips.” (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

China Suspends Rare Earth Export Controls

China, in an official statement, announced it will suspend the export control measures announced October 9th—where it announced tightening rare earths exports—for one year while it studies and refines the specific plan. China said the US will cancel the 10% fentanyl tariffs and suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional year, plus suspend for one year its 50% entity list export control. China will properly resolve the TikTok issue with the US and suspend its shipping curbs against the US for a year once Washington suspends its Section 301 investigation targeting China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. (Bloomberg)

Xi Strikes Conciliatory Tone

Chinese President Xi told reporters that the US and China don’t always see eye to eye, which is normal, but China’s development goes hand in hand with the vision to make America great again. Xi said China is ready to continue working with Trump to build a solid foundation for two-way ties. Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics said, “The reversal of some US tariffs on China won’t have a big impact given that Chinese exporters had largely shrugged them off. But the de-escalation takes the immediate threat of large tariff hikes off the table.” (Reuters, Bloomberg)

US-South Korea Breakthrough Deal

The US and South Korea said they agreed to terms on a trade deal, a surprise breakthrough. South Korea’s $350 billion investment will include $200 billion in cash installments and $150 billion in shipbuilding cooperation. The deal will lower US tariffs on most South Korean goods, including autos, from 25% to 15%. (Wall Street Journal)

MACRO

BOJ Holds Steady, Yen Weakens on Dovish Ueda

The BOJ kept interest rates steady as largely expected but repeated its pledge to continue increasing borrowing costs if the economy moves in line with projections, shifting investor focus to the prospect of a hike as soon as December. The yen weakened further after Governor Ueda said in his press conference that he doesn’t think there’s a risk of the bank falling behind the curve and he has no pre-set ideas about the timing of the next rate hike. (Reuters)

US Shutdown Pain Spreads

The financial pain from the US government shutdown is spreading and legislative options for both Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill are narrowing, prompting a pickup in informal talks to resolve the nearly month-long impasse. (Wall Street Journal)

European Economic Surprises

France’s economic activity unexpectedly sped up in the three months through September, despite higher tariffs and political impasse in Paris. Dutch firebrand Geert Wilders’s hard-right Freedom Party was on the brink of losing power after Wednesday elections, indicating Europe’s populist politicians who draw strong support in opposition can struggle once in government. Hungary’s economy stagnated in Q3, challenging PM Orban whose party trails the opposition less than six months from elections. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

New Zealand Confidence Surges

New Zealand’s business confidence jumped in October to its highest level since February, with aggressive RBNZ interest rate cuts lifting sentiment, an ANZ Bank survey showed Thursday. (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICAL

Trump Orders Nuclear Weapons Testing

Trump said he has ordered the Pentagon to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis” with Russia and China, marking a significant escalation in nuclear policy rhetoric. (Wall Street Journal)

Russian Energy Assets Face Nationalization

US sanctions on Russian oil producer Rosneft have rekindled discussions in Germany about nationalizing the company’s business there, including a refinery that Berlin depends on for most of its fuel. Sanctioned Lukoil has accepted an offer from energy trader Gunvor Group to buy its Lukoil International GmbH unit. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Big Tech AI Spending Spooks Investors

Microsoft shares fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading despite beating Wall Street projections, as the company reported substantial cloud and AI infrastructure spending. CEO told investors demand is so great that Microsoft will boost AI capacity by over 80% this year and double its total data-center footprint in the next two years, meaning higher-than-projected AI infrastructure spending this fiscal year. Meta reported record Q3 revenue but warned capital expenditures around AI will likely accelerate significantly next year, sending stock down more than 7% after hours. Meta also reported a surprise one-time $15.9 billion tax charge that dragged down net income. (Wall Street Journal, CNBC)

Google Soars on AI Momentum

Google’s parent company reported a 16% surge in Q3 revenue, with growth in digital advertising and cloud computing helping to finance robust AI spending. The company expects a substantial increase in capital expenditures next year. Shares jumped 7% after hours, contrasting sharply with Microsoft and Meta’s reactions. (Wall Street Journal)

OpenAI Eyes Trillion-Dollar IPO

OpenAI is laying the groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time. OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising $60 billion at the low end and likely more. (Reuters)

Samsung and Hyundai Show Mixed Results

Samsung Electronics posted solid Q3 net profit as its flagship semiconductor business bounced back strongly, supported by the AI boom fueling chip demand. Hyundai Motor posted weaker Q3 earnings dented by US tariffs, but relief is on the horizon after Seoul agreed to trade deal terms with Washington that would lower auto duties. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

European Auto Sector Struggles

An expensive course correction at subsidiary Porsche dealt Volkswagen a hefty blow in Q3, resulting in a €1.3 billion operating loss and piling billions more in costs on top of pressure from US tariffs. Deutsche Lufthansa reported a decline in Q3 net profit as higher costs outweighed revenue increases, with demand for air travel now stabilizing. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

European Banking and Energy Strong

Shell beat Q3 profit forecasts, helped by strong gas division results, and will maintain its share buyback program at $3.5 billion over the next three months. Standard Chartered reported a rise in Q3 net profit driven by wealth and global banking businesses. Societe Generale’s Q3 net profit rose as the bank continued benefiting from a domestic retail-banking rebound. Credit Agricole posted a Q3 profit increase on sustained activity and higher customer numbers. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

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