29th October 2025

TRADE

Trump and Xi Set for “Good Deal” Thursday

US President Trump said at the APEC Summit Wednesday, “President Xi of China is coming tomorrow here, and we’re going to be, I hope, making a deal, I think we’re going to have a deal, I think it’ll be a good deal for both.” Trump said he expects to lower tariffs the US has imposed on Chinese goods over the fentanyl crisis and will speak with Xi about Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell AI chip. China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Xi will meet Trump in South Korea Thursday to discuss US-China relations and issues of mutual concern. Beijing urged Washington to keep supply chains stable and said it’s open to expanding fentanyl cooperation. China bought at least two cargoes of US soybeans, its first known purchase this season, potentially marking a revival of flows as part of a wider settlement. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

Senate Rebukes Trump on Brazil Tariffs

The Senate voted 52-48 to approve a measure blocking Trump’s tariffs on Brazil, with a handful of Republicans siding with Democrats in rebuking a central piece of the White House’s economic agenda. The Brazil resolution now moves to the House, where GOP leaders have tightened procedural rules to block floor votes on tariff challenges until next March. (Wall Street Journal)

US Deepens Asia-Pacific Alliances

Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi pledged to usher in a new era of cooperation on security and trade, with Trump describing the alliance as the foundation of Pacific peace. The US and South Korea signed a memorandum on “technology prosperity,” including using AI to speed up progress in various technologies. South Korean President Lee asked Trump to allow Seoul to get nuclear fuel for submarines and revise a decades-old nuclear energy agreement. Trump said the US has a “special bond” with South Korea, calling them “serious partners” who are “wedded” together. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters)

Europe Scrambles on Critical Minerals

The EU must move quickly to back the critical minerals sector and allow more state intervention after China banned key raw material exports, a group pushing for energy security said. Malaysia said its improved US bilateral relationship has strengthened its position in negotiations on potential semiconductor tariffs. (Financial Times, Bloomberg)

MACRO

Bessent Pressures Japan on Rate Hikes

US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged Japan’s government Wednesday to give the central bank scope to raise interest rates, escalating his warning to Tokyo against keeping the yen too weak through prolonged low borrowing costs. Rising yields at home are prompting some of Japan’s biggest life insurers to boost domestic bond holdings and pare overseas debt, with roughly half of 10 companies that disclosed half-year plans saying they cut overseas debt holdings. Japan’s Nikkei surged past 51,000 for the first time Wednesday, underpinned by AI sector investment optimism. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Goldman Shifts BOE Rate Cut Expectations

Goldman Sachs now expects the BOE to trim rates by 25 basis points in November, revising its September forecast of a pause through 2025 before easing begins in 2026, citing sticky inflation and a softening labor market. UK lawmakers said the government should use excess profits from grid companies to tackle record household energy debt. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Commodity Markets Rally on Trade Deal Hopes

Copper rose to a record high with the US and China on the cusp of a sweeping deal to dial down trade tensions, while supply setbacks at leading mines have tightened the global market. Goldman Sachs raised its iron ore price forecast for 2026 on macroeconomic support, tighter inventories, and resilient Chinese steel production, though it still expects prices to drop next year. (Bloomberg)

Global Growth Concerns Mount

The OECD sees significant downward risk to its world growth forecasts, Secretary-General Cormann said at an event during the Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea. Australian consumer prices surged in Q3, scuttling hopes of further rate cuts this year and potentially in 2026. Trump’s tariffs are set to raise operating costs, disrupt supply chains, and weaken investment momentum for the oil and gas industry in 2026, a Deloitte report showed. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

GEOPOLITICAL

Taiwan Takes Center Stage Before Trump-Xi

Beijing is using state media outlets to amplify its claims over Taiwan, likely intended to reinforce its position on the sensitive issue before the key Trump-Xi meeting. Trump said about the upcoming meeting, “I don’t know that we’ll even speak about Taiwan... I’m not sure — he may want to ask about it. There’s not that much to ask about Taiwan.” US Defense Secretary Hegseth praised Japan’s new resolve to bolster its military a day after Trump and Takaichi agreed to deepen defense ties. (Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Trump Opens Door to China Blackwell Access

Trump suggested he’s open to providing China with access to Nvidia’s Blackwell AI processor as part of a trade deal. “We’ll be speaking about Blackwells,” Trump said, touting the chip as “super duper” and years ahead of what’s currently available from other countries. However, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Tuesday, “The president has licensed us to ship to China, but China has blocked us from being able to ship to China... They’ve made it very clear that they don’t want Nvidia to be there right now.” (Bloomberg)

Tech Giants Expand AI Infrastructure

Amazon Web Services plans to invest an additional $5 billion in South Korea over the next six years to build new AI data centers. OpenAI assured California state officials on its commitment as it continues global expansion, which could include a public offering as soon as 2027. Apple is preparing major changes to its MacBook Air, iPad mini, and iPad Air lines with plans for higher-end displays. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

Memory Chip Sector Explodes

SK Hynix reported a 62% jump in profit and revealed it’s sold its entire memory chip lineup for next year, illustrating how the global AI infrastructure buildout is ratcheting up sector-wide demand. This complete sellout underscores the intensity of demand from hyperscalers and AI companies. (Bloomberg)

Healthcare and Tech M&A

Thermo Fisher is nearing an all-cash takeover of drug trial software maker Clario in a deal that could value the healthcare technology group at approximately $10 billion. Japan’s NEC is buying CSG Systems International, a US supplier of customer care and billing services, for around $2.9 billion to shore up US operations. (Financial Times, Bloomberg)

European Auto Sector Mixed Signals

Chinese carmakers posted their best month ever in Europe, roaring past previous highs in September on surging demand for battery-powered and hybrid-electric models. Mercedes-Benz reiterated full-year guidance after confirming weakness in China and US import tariffs weighed on Q3 earnings. Aston Martin is putting future model plans under review to lower costs, with US tariffs hitting the British carmaker as its turnaround effort stalls. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

Financial Sector Shows Strength

Deutsche Bank reported higher Q3 profit, benefiting from continued investment bank momentum. UBS reported a jump in Q3 net profit, boosted by fees from wealthy clients and corporate dealmaking. Banco Santander reported a rise in Q3 profit as the bank kept provisions and costs in check. Visa’s revenue climbed in fiscal Q4 as healthy consumer spending drove higher payment volumes. (Wall Street Journal)

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