26th March 2025

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MACRO:

• CAD is firming after reports in The Star that Canada could be on the lower end of Trump’s threatened tariffs next week, with industry officials suggesting there has been a “subtle shift in tone” in meetings with congressional representatives in Washington compared to a few weeks ago. (The Star)
• US President Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks, months earlier than the deadline for the decision, according to Bloomberg, which saw prices rally. (BBG)
• Morgan Stanley raised its China stock targets again. MS now sees the Hang Seng Index ending the year at 25,800, with HSCEI at 9,500, citing “upside for valuations amid an improving outlook for earnings.” (BBG)
• China released plans on Wednesday to expand its carbon trading market into the steel, cement and aluminium smelting industries, a move that will require an additional 1,500 firms to purchase credits to cover their emissions, the environment ministry said. (RTRS)
• A PBoC advisor has said China wields significant policy room to stimulate its economy this year. Some reform measures, including those to increase people's incomes and confidence, are needed to boost consumption, on top of recent moves unveiled by the government. (RTRS)
• A number of global financial institutions have turned more upbeat on China’s economic outlook this year even amid concerns around tariffs, citing a stronger-than-expected recovery fueled by Beijing’s stimulus push. (WSJ)
• China is rapidly cutting back on its seaborne gas imports, threatening growth forecasts that have driven multibillion-dollar spending on projects across the globe. (BBG)
• Hong Kong's central bank head he expects Chinese capital inflows to Hong Kong to provide the biggest opportunity for the financial hub's capital markets in the next few years. Hong Kong is planning to further relax rules on a wealth connect programme with China. (RTRS)
• Japan's corporate service inflation hit 3.0% in February, keeping alive expectations of further interest rate hikes by the central bank. Service-sector inflation is being closely watched by the BoJ for clues on whether prospects of sustained wage gains will prod firms to continue raising prices. (RTRS)
• BoJ Governor Ueda in parliament said the bank must raise interest rates if persistent increases in food costs lead to broad-based inflation, but warned Japan's recent "very high" inflation was driven mostly by temporary factors which are likely to dissipate. (RTRS)
• Japanese officials say that talks between the US and Japanese defence ministers on Sunday could cover whether Tokyo would raise its planned spending on defence. (FT)
• UK inflation slowed by more than expected in February, bringing some relief to consumers ahead of a likely new pick-up in price growth and to finance minister Rachel Reeves before her budget update speech on Wednesday. (RTRS)
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to boost the UK’s defence spending by £2.2bn next year as she delivers a grim Spring Statement in which she will claim that her economic plans have been blown off course by “a changing world”.
• The UK government faces a fresh bid by environmentalists to quash North Sea oil and gas licences on Wednesday, the latest test of Labour’s attempts to balance net zero goals and business complaints about regulation. (FT)
• A key survey on local employment levels run by the beleaguered UK statistics agency has significant flaws and limitations, researchers have warned, hitting councils’ ability to predict future infrastructure needs. (FT)
• Australia's consumer inflation slowed in February, helped by a fall in electricity prices, while the continued easing in home building costs and rents supported the case for more rate cuts in the months ahead. (RTRS)
• ECB's Panetta said the ECB should focus more on inflation expectations than on estimated neutral levels; said the ECB must remain pragmatic and data-driven. Said there is still work to do for the ECB to reach 2% inflation target. (FT)
• Household consumption drove Spain’s economic expansion at the end of last year, helping it outpace its euro-zone peers. (BBG)
• Former ECB President Mario Draghi said Germany’s decision to ramp up defense spending is a “game changer” but warned of risks. (BBG)
• The Polish government said on Tuesday that it would become the first EU country to use the bloc’s post-pandemic recovery funds for defence purposes. (FT)
• European natural gas continued its slide as ample supply of LNG and warmer weather ease pressure on the region’s fuel inventories after a rocky start to the year. (BBG)
• Sentiment among households in Sweden fell in March with consumer confidence dropping to 89.8 points from a revised 94.6 points in the previous month. (RTRS)
• US President Trump praised Turkey’s President Erdogan, giving his endorsement to a government that’s faced a week of protests at home and an exodus of foreign capital. (BBG)
• Vietnam’s finance ministry has put forward a proposal to cut preferential import tariffs on a range of products including LNG, cars, wood and agricultural products as the nation seeks to avoid the imminent threat of US tariffs. (BBG)
• Thai PM Shinawatra survived a no-confidence vote in parliament after a two-day debate where the opposition targeted her over her father’s alleged influence on the government and its mismanagement of the economy. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• The U.S. added six subsidiaries of Inspur Group, China's leading cloud computing and big data service provider, and dozens of other Chinese entities to its export restriction list. (RTRS)
• Ukrainian drones have been shot down over the Black Sea, hours after a partial ceasefire was agreed, according to Russia's defence ministry. (Sky News via Newsquawk)
• Taiwan will use this year's events to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two to bolster public sentiment on the need to defend the island from Chinese threats. (RTRS)
• EU authorities are investigating Huawei lobbyists and EU parliamentary assistants for allegedly exchanging gifts for political favours, at a time when the company was lobbying to not be excluded from the rollout of 5G infrastructure in the bloc. (FT)

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EQUITIES:

• China's NDRC is said to be advising Chinese firms to use chips that meet 'strict' requirements in new data centers and expansion of existing facilities and Nvidia's H20 chip does not currently satisfy these requirements, risking the Co.'s China revenue. (FT)
• AT&T is in exclusive talks to buy Lumen’s consumer fibre unit and is valued in excess of $5.5bln. (BBG)
• Qualcomm has taken its fight against Arm global to the European Commission. (BBG)
• TrendForce sees DRAM prices, including HBM, rising 3-8% in Q2 compared to Q1, boosted by higher HBM3e 12Hi shipments, and despite a forecast 0-5% drop in conventional DRAM prices. (TrendForce)
• Gamestop surged after hours after its board approved investing corporate cash into Bitcoin. (Newsquawk)
• Fidelity Investments is planning to launch its own stablecoin, deepening the $5tn asset manager’s push into digital assets as the US prepares its first regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. (FT)
• United Airlines technicians have rejected a contract proposal from the carrier, the Teamsters union said Tuesday. (WSJ)
• Foxconn is reportedly teaming up with Google to power its auto and AI cloud ambitions. (DigiTimes)
• Alibaba and BMW will jointly develop AI for cars in China. (BBG)
• BYD aims to double its sales outside China to over 800,000 cars in 2025 and will look to overcome tariffs by assembling cars locally, its chairman told analysts on an earnings call on Tuesday. (RTRS)
• CATL said it had received approval from China's securities regulator for a share sale in Hong Kong that sources have said could raise at least $5 billion, the largest listing in the city for four years. (RTRS)
• China’s No. 1 smartphone maker Vivo wants to increase sales from overseas markets like Southeast Asia to as much as 70% of revenue in two years, accelerating its global push as the world’s biggest handset market saturates. (BBG)
• China's commerce minister met with the ThyssenKrupp chairman and said that China welcomes ThyssenKrupp to increase cooperation with China in steel, machinery, auto parts and low carbon fields. (Newsquawk)
• MFE is to reportedly review a potential bid for Germany's ProSieben on Wednesday. (Reuters)
• Nintendo’s shares rose sharply amid hopes for its upcoming Switch 2 console, the new version of its widely successful Switch console that was launched in 2017. (WSJ)
• Grab is in early talks to raise up to $2 billion through a 12-month bridge loan to help fund a possible acquisition of Indonesia’s GoTo. (BBG)
• Paladin Energy shares tumbled after the Australian uranium miner withdrew production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year. (BBG)

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