25th March 2025

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MACRO:

• India is open to cutting tariffs on more than half of U.S. imports worth $23 billion in the first phase of a trade deal the two nations are negotiating, aimed at fending off reciprocal tariffs, according to Reuters sources. India is looking to strike a deal before the reciprocal tariffs are announced. (RTRS)
• The EU is stepping up its charm offensive to avoid a brutal trade clash with Trump. Trade chief Sefcovic and Commission President von der Leyen’s head of cabinet will meet Tuesday with senior American officials ahead of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ due next week. (BBG)
• A Trump administration proposal to impose stiff levies on Chinese-made ships entering US ports is sowing panic in the country’s agriculture industry, with farmers saying the added cost threatens to upend exports of wheat, corn and soyabeans. (FT)
• Net inflows from retail investors into US equities and exchange traded funds have registered $67bn in 2025, down only slightly from the $71bn spent in the final quarter of 2024, according to data provider VandaTrack, despite professional money managers slashing their exposure. (FT)
• Canadians are boycotting U.S. travel because of President Trump's annexation threats and aggressive border tactics, resulting in a drop in Canadian arrivals in February. (WSJ)
• China is considering including services in a multibillion-dollar subsidy programme to stimulate consumption, according to officials and academics, as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to boost chronically weak domestic demand. (FT)
• The PBoC has tweaked the pricing for one-year loans to commercial lenders, a move seen as a fresh sign that it is loosening its monetary stance under a policy revamp. The change effectively phases out the once-important medium-term lending facility rate, and could ease financial strains for the country’s banks. (WSJ)
• China's yuan fell to a two-week low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as the central bank's support efforts were overshadowed by the dollar's strength and tariff concerns. (RTRS)
• Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai warned of a potential bubble forming in datacenter construction, especially in the US, arguing that the pace of that buildout may outstrip initial demand for AI services. (BBG)
• FT article "China is suffering its own ‘China shock’" highlights the disappearance of labour-intensive manufacturing in China amid reduced competitiveness vs Asian peers and growing automation, risking a secular hurdle for employment, stability, and growth. (FT)
• China has narrowed the AI development gap with the US to just three months in some areas, because firms such as DeepSeek have worked out how to use chips and apply algorithms more efficiently, the CEO of Chinese startup 01-AI Lee Kai-fu said. (RTRS)
• Some Chinese steel mills have begun cutting production, according to a report, as a supply glut and low profitability weigh on the industry. (BBG)
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is planning “powerful” measures to ease the impact on consumers coming from price hikes, according to local media reports. Officials later clarified the new measures would not require additional budget measures. (Newswires)
• BoJ Governor Ueda said in parliament that the bank's massive government bond holdings would keep lowering yields for a while, since the pace of balance sheet reduction through tapering of new purchases is very slow. Also said there are no immediate plan to offload its ETF holdings, but must consider a disposal plan that would not cause a market rout. (RTRS)
• BoJ minutes from the January meeting (two meetings old) showed policymakers discussed the pace of raising rates further after deciding to hike rates. Policymakers said it would be appropriate that the BOJ continue to tighten policy if the outlook for economic activity and prices was realized. (RTRS)
• Japan's cabinet has decided to impose provisional four-month anti-dumping duties on China's graphite electrode exports, effective March 29, after a probe suggested China was exporting electrodes at unfairly low prices and causing damage to Japanese companies. (RTRS)
• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to reveal in Wednesday's budget that the OBR's growth forecast has been cut to 1% from 2% and that the prior GBP 9.9bln of fiscal headroom has been wiped out to leave her GBP 4bln in the red, even after planned spending cuts. (FT)
• Analysts warn of more difficult decisions ahead at the UK autumn budget, such as tax rises and more spending cuts. Government sources reaffirm Reeves will not loosen her fiscal rules amid fears over debt market instability. (FT)
• The UK could produce half of its projected demand for oil and gas domestically under the “right business conditions”, reducing an increasing reliance on more carbon-intensive imports, an industry body has said. (FT)
• More than 100 pages of regulations covering consumer finance, investments and mortgage lending will be “retired” by the UK financial watchdog in response to calls from businesses and the government to streamline its rules. (FT)
• European car sales declined the most in five months in February as uncertainty about the economy prompted consumers to hold back on bigger purchases. (BBG)
• Turkey’s finance minister is set to hold a call with foreign investors on Tuesday, the latest attempt by the government to calm markets after the tumult triggered by a key opposition figure’s arrest. (BBG)
• Brazil’s former president Bolsonaro, facing coup charges that could land him in jail, has called for “support from abroad” to rescue his country from what he says is a slide towards a Venezuelan-style leftist dictatorship. (FT)
• The Philippine central bank has a “good chance” of cutting its interest rate by 25 basis points in April, Governor Eli Remolona said Tuesday. (BBG)
• European natural gas prices eased as traders await results of talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, which lasted for about 12 hours. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• U.S.-led talks in Saudi Arabia with delegations from Ukraine and Russia have been going well and a positive announcement is expected soon, a White House source told Reuters. (RTRS)
• France and the UK are now the leaders of hard power in Europe, according to the Czech prime minister, citing the continued threat from Russia and pressure from the US to boost military spending. (FT)
• Chinese authorities have released all employees of a U.S. corporate due diligence firm, Mintz, detained in Beijing two years ago in an apparent move to reassure foreign firms operating in China amid sliding foreign investment. (RTRS)

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EQUITIES:

• Meta Plans to Charge $14 a Month for Ad-Free Instagram or Facebook. (WSJ)
• India plans to scrap a contentious tax of 6% on digital advertisements that primarily affected U.S. tech giants such as Alphabet,, Meta, and Amazon, aiming to ease U.S. concerns and advance a trade pact. (RTRS)
• Trump Media and Technology Group surged 9% after hours after it signed a non-binding agreement with Crypto.com to launch exchange-traded funds and products on its financial services platform. (WSJ)
• Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management LLC remains bullish on Tesla and expects the stock will hit $2,600 in five years. (BBG)
• Tesla's market share in Europe continued to shrink year-on-year in February, ACEA data showed, as sales of the all-electric car maker dropped for a second consecutive month despite rising overall EV registrations on the continent. (RTRS)
• China's Vice Premier He Lifeng met Blackstone's Chairman Stephen Schwarzman in Beijing, Xinhua reported on Tuesday, stating that the Chinese side said it welcomed more U.S.-funded enterprises and long-term capital. (RTRS)
• eToro has filed to go public on the Nasdaq under the symbol $ETOR. (Newswires)
• Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai said the tech giant would recommence hiring, emboldened with more confidence following President Xi Jinping's February meeting with business entrepreneurs. (RTRS)
• China’s smartphone subsidy program has reportedly been a hit, with 10 million handsets sold in the first week in effect, the highest amount since 2020, while sales of mobile phones costing 6,000 yuan (US$830) or less have grown 13.7%. (CTEE via @dnystedt)
• Xiaomi Corp said it had raised $5.5 billion in an upsized share sale as the company pushes forward with its ambitious EV manufacturing plans. (RTRS)
• BYD Electronic falls to 7-week low on profit miss. (RTRS)
• Chinese AI start-ups are overhauling their business models as they fight to remain competitive following the widespread adoption of rival DeepSeek’s technology across the country. (FT)
• Samsung Electronics co-CEO Han Jong-Hee has died of a heart attack at age 63. (BBG)
• Shares of Japanese real estate developers forged ahead on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Tuesday, inspired by Elliott Investment Management's move to invest in Sumitomo Realty and Development. (Nikkei)
• Shell said it is targeting hydrocarbon production growth and plans to further increase shareholder returns as the energy giant outlined its strategy for the next five years at its capital markets day. (WSJ)
• HSBC expects to double down on investment banking operations Asia and the Middle East after exiting key business in Europe and the US. (BBG)
• GSK is studying a large group of elderly adults to determine if its blockbuster shingles vaccine reduces the risk of dementia. (BBG)
• Nokia is betting that advances in chip development will help slash power consumption by data centers and networks as the demands of AI computing increase the risk of an energy crunch. Co. has invested heavily to develop a variety of new chipsets to reduce the power consumption of its products by 50% or more. (Nikkei)

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