20th March 2025

MACRO:

• US President Trump posted on Truth, "The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!" (Truth)
• Trump said he believes India is probably going to be lowering tariffs substantially but on April 2nd, the US will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us. (Newswires)
• Trump's plan to revive U.S. shipbuilding using massive fees on China-linked ship visits to American ports is causing U.S. coal inventories to swell and stoking uncertainty in the embattled agriculture market, as exporters struggle to find ships to send goods abroad. (RTRS)
• Over the 12 months ending in October 2024, the US saw a 25% decline in overdose deaths compared with the same period the year prior, according to estimates from the CDC, with a falling number of fatalities involving synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, leading the decline. (WSJ)
• The Australian dollar fell after a soft jobs report narrowed the odds of a rate cut in May. Employment unexpectedly fell in February, but the jobless rate remained low at 4.1% thanks to a pullback in the participation rate. Investors increased the chance of a rate cut in May to 78% from 70% and added 6bps to a total of 67bps of easing this year. (RTRS)
• The kiwi failed to draw much support from data showing its economy has crawled out of a recession given significant pockets of weakness. (RTRS)
• China kept its key lending rates unchanged (as expected) on Thursday. The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, where they have been since a quarter-percentage-point cut in October. (CNBC)
• Chinese equities saw a notable pullback lower on Thursday, despite the post-Fed risk on move in the US, with domestic tech giants such as Tencent and Alibaba lagging after recent outperformance.
• Joblessness among youth in Chinese cities rose a second month in February, tracking the nation's jobless rate which reached a two-year high, official data showed on Thursday. (RTRS)
• China is boosting state support for domestic minerals exploration as policymakers increase efforts to achieve President Xi Jinping’s ambition for resource self-sufficiency amid intensifying competition with the US. (FT)
• UK Chancellor Reeves will announce the biggest spending cuts since austerity at next week’s spring statement after ruling out tax rises as a way to close her budget deficit. Chancellor to tell MPs she intends to cut Whitehall budgets by billions of pounds more than previously expected. (Guardian via Newsquawk)
• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to announce next week that she has rebuilt a 9.9 billion pound fiscal buffer, according to a Bloomberg sources, thanks to reductions in government expenditure and welfare spending, along with an accounting adjustment from reallocating certain foreign aid expenses to defence. (BBG)
• UK bond sales are forecast to rise to almost £310bn next year, a record sum (ex-COVID) that will provide the latest test of market confidence in Rachel Reeves’ spending plans, according to an FT analyst survey. (FT)
• UK wage growth held at its highest level in nine months and employment rose, evidence of a tight labor market that will likely keep the Bank of England cautious over further rate cuts. (BBG)
• Options traders have placed one of the biggest bets in over a year on the Bank of England lowering interest rates by more than markets expect (3 vs 2 cuts currently priced this year). The options bet was initiated last week and has built up over the past days. (BBG)
• The UK government needs to be “more ambitious” in its negotiations with the EU in order to boost the country’s flagging goods exports, the head of the British Chamber of Commerce has warned. (FT)
• Canadian consumers are responding to U.S. tariffs and presidential musings of annexation with a “Buy Canadian” movement that retailers and producers are swiftly embracing. (WSJ)
• Germany’s industry lobby pushed for more leeway in refilling gas storage facilities, arguing it would help ease the sector’s struggle with high energy bills. (BBG)
• France's public investment bank Bpifrance will launch a 450 million euros fund dedicated to financing defence projects, finance minister Eric Lombard said on Thursday. (RTRS)
• Poland is discussing ways of clubbing together with the UK and other European nations to drive up defence production while obtaining better value for taxpayers, its finance minister has said, as the continent responds to US pressure to bolster its military power. (FT)
• Iberdrola chair warns of surge in Spanish power prices if country shuts nuclear plants. (FT)
• A handful of European stocks have become a battleground for retail traders taking on hedge fund short sellers, in a campaign with echoes of the “meme stock” craze that gripped Wall Street during the Covid-19 pandemic. (FT)
• The cost of borrowing Turkish liras in the offshore market rose to the highest in two years after Turkish authorities detained President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival on corruption charges on Wednesday. (BBG)
• Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points (as expected) for the third consecutive time, sticking to previous guidance, and signaled a smaller rate hike at its next policy meeting as it monitors signs of an economic slowdown. (RTRS)
• New York copper price hits record premium over London on tariff fears. (FT)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said that a halt on energy strikes in the war with Russia could be established quickly, following a conversation with US President Trump, where he said Kyiv could draw up a list of facilities that could be subject to a partial ceasefire. (RTRS)
• Trump raised the possibility that the US would acquire Ukrainian power plants, including nuclear facilities, calling it the “best protection for that infrastructure”. Trump asked if the U.S. could invest and refurbish the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and Zelensky said he wasn’t against the idea. (WSJ)
• The Trump administration is considering a plan to extend Chevron’s license to pump oil in Venezuela and impose financial penalties on other countries that do business with the South American nation. (WSJ)
• Hungary will again vote against the rest of the EU at a leaders’ summit today, as Budapest doubles down on its opposition to Kyiv’s rapid EU accession and sending it military aid. (FT)
• Israel said it sent ground troops back into the center and south of the Gaza Strip, expanding a military operation that began with airstrikes a day earlier that Palestinian authorities said killed hundreds of people. (WSJ)

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EQUITIES:

• Nvidia plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S.-made chips and electronics over the next four years, CEO Huang told the FT. Co. expects to spend around half-a-trillion dollars on electronics during the four-year period. (FT)
• CoreWeave is planning to ask investors to pay $47 to $55 for each of its shares when it begins marketing its IPO this week. The price range, which has not been previously reported, would translate into an offering of $2.3-2.7 billion for CoreWeave. (RTRS)
• SoftBank Group inked a deal to purchase U.S.-based chip designer Ampere Computing Holdings for $6.5 billion, the latest in a series of investments to advance its AI initiatives. (WSJ)
• Eli Lilly has launched its blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro in India following approval from the country's drug regulator, it said on Thursday. (RTRS)
• Building-products distributor QXO has signed a deal for Beacon Roofing Supply after months of trying to clinch an agreement. QXO has agreed to pay $124.35 a share, valuing Beacon at roughly $7.7 billion, or $11 billion including debt. (WSJ)
• The cryptocurrency exchange Kraken is nearing a $1.5 billion deal for NinjaTrader, a U.S. retail futures trading platform, in a bid to expand its user base and move into other asset classes. (WSJ)
• Chinese entrepreneur Kai-Fu Lee expects just three AI models to survive a domestic shakeup triggered by the advent of DeepSeek, betting on DeepSeek, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. dominating the Chinese market ultimately. (BBG)
• Geely Automobile’s net profit in 2024 more than tripled on robust sales and record exports, helping cement the company as one of the leading players in China’s intensely competitive EV sector. (WSJ)
• EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies. (FT)
• Prudential posted a solid increase in annual profit on Thursday, propelled by strong growth in most of its segments, and robust demand for insurance products in Hong Kong and Singapore. (RTRS)
• German naval systems maker ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems expects its market size to triple by the end of the decade, according to CEO Oliver Burkhard. (CNBC)
• RWE raised its dividend after its 2024 earnings fell but beat analysts’ expectations. (WSJ)
• German shipbuilder Hapag-Lloyd expects significantly lower earnings this year amid a fragile economic and geopolitical environment, with continuing tensions in the Middle East and escalating trade disputes from U.S. tariffs and countermeasures from export nations. (WSJ)
• Swiss watch exports’ downward trajectory resumed in February after a one-month respite, with all main markets seeing a decline. (BBG)
• A rise in protectionism in the US and elsewhere will help push up insurance prices, according to the outgoing head of Lloyd’s of London, offsetting the benefit to policyholders of new capital that has flowed into the sector. (FT)