19th March 2025

MACRO:

• Turkish police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key Erdogan rival, over alleged corruption and terror links. Turkish stocks hit down limits, with domestic bond yields rising, and the Lira hitting record lows vs the Dollar. Note that broader risk assets have seen some haven flows.
• The BOJ kept its key policy rate unchanged, as expected, as Governor Kazuo Ueda mulled the impact from January’s hike and remained wary of risks in the global economy. (BBG)
• The Yen saw two-way volatility during Ueda's presser amid a typical mix of dovish and hawkish comments. On the hawkish side, Ueda warned about FX impacts, strong wage trends, and needing to conduct policies before its too late due to tariffs. On the dovish side, he said the risks of falling behind the curve are not so high whilst warning of growing tariff risks.
• Strategists say the yen may be set for a period of softness after the Bank of Japan highlighted risks from US trade policies as it kept its policy rate on hold Wednesday. (BBG)
• Japan's exports rose for a fifth straight month in February, data showed on Wednesday, possibly helped by some stockpiling amid growing concerns over Trump's aggressive tariff policies. (RTRS)
• Business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers in March worsened for the first time in three months into negative territory on concerns about U.S. tariff policies and weakness in China's economy, a Reuters Tankan poll found. (RTRS)
• WSJ's Nik Timiraos says the case for the Fed cutting rates because inflation has declined because sweeping tariff increases appear much more likely than they did just seven weeks ago. (WSJ)
• U.S. President Donald Trump still intends for new reciprocal tariff rates to take effect on April 2, the White House said on Tuesday, despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that indicated a possible delay in their activation. (RTRS)
• Trump fired two Democratic commissioners at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission on Tuesday, in another major test of the independence of regulatory agencies. (RTRS)
• Chinese Vice Commerce Minister met with PepsiCo's chairman in Beijing on Tuesday, stating that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. (RTRS)
• Indonesia’s central bank held interest rates steady again as volatility in local markets and the rupiah make the case for policymakers to tread cautiously. (WSJ)
• The Bank of Thailand’s rate-setting panel has shifted its focus toward the country’s weakening growth outlook, with Nomura predicting more aggressive rate cuts to support the economy. (BBG)
• Ireland’s economy would suffer a significant blow and could even risk recession if U.S. President Trump targeted the country with higher tariffs or changed tax rules, the Central Bank of Ireland said Wednesday. (WSJ)
• North Carolina is on Wednesday to introduce a new Bitcoin reserve bill which allows the state treasurer to invest up to 10% of public funds into Bitcoin. (Cointelegraph)
• 83% of institutions plan to increase their crypto allocations in 2025, according to Coinbase’s latest institutional investor survey. (Cointelegraph)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• Ukraine President Zelensky accuses Russia of rejecting ceasefire as fresh strikes hit Ukraine. (AFP)
• Ukraine ceasefire talks planned Sunday in Jeddah, says top US envoy. (AFP)
• China is delaying approval for BYD to build a plant in Mexico due to concerns that the company's advanced car technology could leak to the US. (FT)
• Canada is partnering with Australia to develop a $4 billion over-the-horizon radar for the Arctic to boost Ottawa's presence in the remote northern region amid souring ties with Washington. (Nikkei)

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EQUITIES:

• Activist investor Starboard Value is preparing to wage a proxy fight at Autodesk. (WSJ)
• Morgan Stanley is planning layoffs of 2000 staff later this month as it looks to control costs. The cuts will affect all groups except financial advisors. (BBG)
• SK Hynix has delivered the world’s first 12-layer HBM4 samples to key customers ahead of schedule, touting the AI memory chip’s “ultra-high performance.” Mass production is set for the second half of 2025. (SK Hynix via @dnystedt)
• Chinese robot vacuums are racing to suck market share away from pioneer brands such as America’s Roomba, scooping up business through cutting-edge features like an arm that can pluck stray objects from the floor. (Nikkei)
• Vonovia posted a narrowed net loss for 2024 and adjusted earnings that hit the upper end of guidance. (WSJ)
• Rio Tinto has dismissed proxy advisers' support for a review of its UK listing. (FT)

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