18th March 2025

MACRO:

• US officials recently weighed whether to simplify the approaching new tariff rates into a tiered tariff system. The proposal was later ruled out and Trump’s team are still trying to sort how to implement an individualized rate for each nation. Meetings have centered on how to create a comprehensive tariff policy that achieves Trump’s goals but has more flexibility. (WSJ)
• No matter what tariffs the US administration settles on, officials expect they will take into account value-added taxes that many other nations charge on consumption within their boundaries. (WSJ)
• US Vice President JD Vance has taken on a larger role in Trump’s trade agenda in recent weeks and helmed some policy discussions. (WSJ)
• CTAs are no longer selling stocks. Goldman sees CTAs buying $90bln global/$45bln US stocks over next month in a +2sigma rally. (ZeroHedge)
• Allocation to US stocks saw the biggest drop ever in March with concerns over stagflation, trade wars and end of U.S. exceptionalism driving a "bull crash" in sentiment, a survey of investors from BofA Global Research showed.
• US President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and rush to downsize the federal government will slow US economic growth and accelerate inflation, leading academic economists have warned in a survey by the FT. (FT)
• Hong Kong shares rose to a three-year peak and led Asian markets higher on Tuesday. There was particular strength in tech names, extending the bullish sentiment on the sector seen during US hours on Monday.
• China's Global Times warned US tariffs will inflict significant harm on the US economy as other countries hit back with "high tariffs" on American goods. "In response to U.S. tariffs, its trading partners will not sit idly by." (Global Times)
• China has not imported LNG from the US for 40 days, the longest gap in nearly two years, as traders divert shipments to avoid Beijing's tariffs. (BBG)
• China renewed registrations that allow hundreds of U.S. pork and poultry facilities to export to China, after lapses threatened shipments to the world's largest meat importer. However, registrations for beef plants remain expired. (RTRS)
• HSBC upgraded its forecast for China's 2025 GDP growth to 4.8% from 4.5%. The bank also revised up its forecast for China's growth in 2026 to 4.5% from 4.4%. (RTRS)
• Foreign investments into China’s onshore markets rose to a record high in February as DeepSeek’s technology breakthrough and doubts over US exceptionalism helped offset trade-led concern over local assets. (BBG)
• Japan Finance Minister Kato said on Tuesday the bond markets should decide on rate moves after the 40-year government debt yield briefly jumped to a record high. (RTRS)
• Goldman Sachs economists say Japan’s wages need to rise by at least 3% over the next two years to achieve the Bank of Japan’s sustainable inflation target. (BBG)
• Canada's PM Carney said it was important to strengthen ties with "reliable allies" in Europe, as he met British and French leaders on his first overseas visit amid tensions with the United States. (RTRS)
• Germany’s incoming chancellor Merz has expressed “confidence” about Tuesday’s vote in parliament over his plans to unlock up to €1tn for the country’s armed forces and ageing infrastructure. (FT)
• German Bundestag is set to vote Tuesday on the fiscal package, where the session starts around 05:00ET (09:00GMT) and usually lasts 3-4 hours. If the Bundestag passes the package, the proposal will proceed to the other chamber Bundesrat for final approval around Friday. (TradeTheNews)
• Netherlands’ ruling coalition official has warned that boosting defence spending through a borrowing binge encouraged by Brussels risks a new debt crisis, saying his country opposes common EU debt or an indefinite loosening of borrowing rules. (FT)
• UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will on Tuesday attempt i Washington to fend off the threat of US tariffs, but Britain’s digital services tax remains a major source on contention with the Trump administration. (FT)
• The SNB largely kept out of currency markets in the final three months of 2024, marking a full year without sizeable interventions in the franc. (BBG)
• RBA's Hunter said the bank remained more cautious than the market about the prospects for further policy easing. (RTRS)
• Kiwi jumps to 3-month high as China's outlook brightens. (RTRS)
• Indonesia’s main stock index fell 7 per cent on Tuesday as concerns mounted over weakening consumer spending in south-east Asia’s largest economy and President Prabowo Subianto’s costly spending plans. (FT)
• South Africa’s two biggest political parties are holding a series of talks to resolve an impasse over the national budget that poses the biggest threat yet to the stability of the country’s ruling alliance. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• U.S. President Trump said many elements of a final deal on Ukraine had been agreed to but much remained, ahead of a call with Russian President Putin on Tuesday. "I look very much forward to the call with President Putin," he wrote on Truth Social. (RTRS)
• Trump’s second official phone call with Putin on Tuesday since he was inaugurated is expected to end with some diplomatic niceties and a promise for more talks, WSJ analysis suggests given Moscow has showed little sign of budging from its initial war aims. (WSJ)
• Israel launched a series of attacks against Hamas targets across the Gaza Strip early Tuesday, threatening a return to war after talks to release the remaining hostages held in the enclave stalled out. (WSJ)
• Canadian PM Carney said changes in the geopolitical landscape and a need to secure more defense production in Canada have sparked a review of the country’s planned acquisition of 88 F-35 combat jets from Lockheed Martin. (WSJ)
• Chinese authorities have begun looking into Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison's sale of its overseas port businesses to a BlackRock-led consortium. (BBG)
• U.S. Commerce department bureaus informed staffers in recent weeks that Chinese AI model DeepSeek is banned on their government devices. (RTRS)

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EQUITIES:

• Oracle is accelerating talks with the White House on a deal to run TikTok, though significant concerns remain about what role the app’s Chinese founders will play in its ongoing U.S. operation. (Politico)
• OpenAI and Elon Musk have agreed to fast-track a trial over OpenAI's for-profit shift. (RTRS)
• Berkshire Hathaway raised its holdings in five Japanese trading houses, regulatory filings showed on Monday. (RTRS)
• Alphabet is spinning out laser-based internet company Taara from its “moonshot” incubator, hoping to turbocharge the start-up that provides high-bandwidth services to hard-to-reach areas in competition with Elon Musk’s Starlink network of satellites. (FT)
• Baidu said on Sunday it has launched two new AI models, including a new reasoning-focused model that it said rivalled DeepSeek's model, as it vies to stand out in a fiercely competitive AI race. (RTRS)
• Samsung Electronics rose 5.3% on Monday, the biggest one-day percentage gain in four months. Market sentiment was buoyed by expectations that Nvidia could express positive opinions regarding Samsung's high-bandwidth memory chips at this week's GTC event. (WSJ)
• BMW Group will integrate Huawei HiCar, the Chinese tech conglomerate's car mobile app connecting devices with vehicles, into its locally produced new models in 2026. (RTRS)
• Volkswagen AG and its long-standing partner FAW Group will launch 11 new models exclusively for the Chinese market as it seeks to shore up declining market share in the world’s biggest auto market. (BBG)
• AstraZeneca bought Belgian biotech company EsoBiotec in a deal valued at up to $1 billion, to expand its cell-therapy portfolio. (WSJ)
• Ramelius Resources wants to acquire Spartan Resources to create a larger gold-mining company that’s more appealing to investors, in a deal that values Spartan around 2.4 billion Australian dollars. (WSJ)