17th March 2025

MACRO:

• US President Trump said to reporters he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs and said reciprocal and sectoral tariffs will be imposed on April 2nd. (Newswires)
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent, in an NBC interview on Sunday, said there are "no guarantees" there will not be a recession in the US, saying the country needs to be weaned off massive government spending. Bessent also dismissed concerns about recent stock market weakness, saying corrections were healthy and that markets "will do great" if the administration puts into place good tax policy, deregulation and energy security. (RTRS)
• US Secretary of State Rubio said on Sunday that once the US has imposed tariffs on its major trading partners it could engage in bilateral talks with countries on new trade arrangements. "This is global. It's not against Canada, it's not against Mexico, it's not against the EU, it's everybody," he said on CBS. (RTRS)
• The US Senate on Friday passed a stopgap spending bill, averting a partial government shutdown. (RTRS)
• Trump is set to meet with top oil executives at the White House this week. It will be his first meeting with a large group of oil and gas leaders since his inauguration. (Newsquawk)
• Export registrations for more than 1,000 U.S. meat plants granted by China under the 2020 "Phase 1" trade deal lapsed on Sunday, China's customs website showed, threatening U.S. exports to the world's largest buyer. (RTRS)
• China's State Council unveiled on Sunday what it called a "special action plan" to boost domestic consumption, featuring measures including increasing residents' income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. The plan also envisaged measures to stabilize the stock market but gave no details on when and how this could happen. (RTRS)
• China's retail sales growth quickened in January-February in a welcome sign for policymakers' efforts to boost domestic consumption even as joblessness rose and factory output eased. (RTRS)
• China's property slump persisted in February, with official figures on Monday showing declines in prices, investment and sales, as government measures and promises of more stimulus did little to boost demand in the crisis-stricken sector. (RTRS)
• China should choose the right timing and force in easing monetary policy, state media said on Saturday in the latest signal that further easing to boost the world's second-largest economy may not be imminent. (Shanghai Securities News)
• China's securities watchdog will step up monitoring fake information in the stock market and work with the police and cyberspace regulators to crack down on those who disseminate false news, which is being made easier by AI. (Securities Times)
• Global CEOs including those from Qualcomm and Saudi Aramco will travel to Beijing for an annual gathering of top executives, with some expected to meet top leaders like President Xi. Plans are being made for the CEOs to meet Xi on March 28th, according to sources. (BBG)
• Yield on JGB 30s rises to 2.62% and highest since July 2006. (RTRS)
• PIMCO, which had held an underweight position on Japanese government bonds, has now turned “overall neutral”. PIMCO sees value in 30-year JGBs, whose yields have climbed to the highest since 2006. (BBG)
• Public support for Japanese PM Ishiba's government dropped to a record low after he handed out gift vouchers to some ruling party lawmakers, a poll conducted by the Asahi newspaper showed on Monday. (RTRS)
• Germany's parliamentary budget committee on Sunday approved the plans for a massive increase in state borrowing aimed at bolstering defence and reviving growth in Europe's biggest economy. The bill will require a two-thirds majority in the parliamentary vote, which is scheduled for Tuesday, March 18th. (RTRS)
• Morgan Stanley say supply risks in Germany in 2025 seem contained, while bond issuance is set to surge in 2026. The strategists think the bulk of the Bund selloff in wake of the fiscal package news is over and duration should stabilize. (WSJ)
• The EU was probably mistaken in targeting American whiskey in its riposte to U.S. tariffs, French PM Bayrou said on Sunday, calling for talks to avoid more damaging duties on France's cognac industry. (RTRS)
• The American Chamber of Commerce to the EU, a trade body, has said the escalating trade war between the US and Europe threatens a commercial relationship that is worth an estimated $9.5 trillion in two-way trade and investment. (WSJ)
• The Deutsche Borse CEO has said Europe needs a “big bang moment” to boost long-term investment in companies and capitalise on this year’s surge in the region’s stock markets, urging for planned reforms to move ahead faster. (FT)
• French PM Bayrou ruled out lowering the French retirement age back to 62, citing the financial situation of the pension system. (BBG)
• Bank of Spain Governor Escriva said Spain’s economy is getting a boost thanks to the country’s attractiveness for remote workers. (BBG)
• UK Treasury sources say Reeves is determined to respond with spending cuts, including to welfare, despite opposition from within her own party. There also growing calls from economists for Reeves to bend the fiscal rules or raise taxes instead. (The Guardian)
• The UK government will abolish more business regulators and scale back welfare spending to drive stagnant economic growth. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is expected to unveil plans on Tuesday to cut the welfare bill by up to £6 billion to encourage more people to work. (BBG)
• UK Chancellor Reeves will on Monday pledge to change the law to restrict merger investigations by the UK competition watchdog, as part of her bid to boost corporate confidence and economic growth by easing business regulation. (FT)
• The UK's steel industry has called on the government to help with electricity prices that it says can be 50% higher than those paid by European competitors. (RTRS)
• UK ministers are set to drop plans to freeze a major disability benefit next year in an attempt to quell a growing rebellion by Labour MPs over the UK government’s wider package of reforms to the welfare system. (FT)
• Rightmove data showed the average cost of property coming to the U.K. market rose and was in line with historical trends in March as many sellers priced sensibly despite decade-high competition to sell. More than half a million UK home buyers are trying to tie up deals before a tax break slams shut at the start of April. (WSJ/BBG)
• South Korea’s semiconductor exports to China plunged last month (-31.8% Y/Y in Feb vs -22.5% in Jan), deepening concerns about a cooling in global demand already threatened by US tariffs, as Washington steps up its restrictions on technology supplies to Beijing. (BBG)
• The US has called for better access to the Korean market, particularly in the agriculture and technology sectors, South Korea's trade minister said on Sunday. (RTRS)
• Taiwan plans to hike power bills 6% on average in April as it continues to shore up loss-making state-run Taiwan Power. This rate hike will target households and small businesses. The Taiwan Water Co. is also looking at raising prices. (UDN and CNA via @dnystedt)
• UBS is the latest bank to raise its price outlook for gold on increasing chances of a protracted global trade war. Sees bullion trading at $3,200 an ounce in the next four quarters, up from its prior forecast of $3,000. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• US President Trump said to reporters late on Sunday he may have something to announce on Ukraine/Russia by Tuesday, after his scheduled call with Putin. He added, "A lot of work's been done over the weekend." (Newswires)
• Trump said on Friday that he sees good news coming out of Russia, and he thinks Russia will make a deal on the Ukraine war. "Pretty good vibes coming out of Russia," he said. (RTRS)
• Russia will seek "ironclad" guarantees in any peace deal that NATO nations exclude Kyiv from membership and that Ukraine will remain neutral, a Russian deputy foreign minister said in remarks published on Monday. (RTRS)
• U.S. President Trump is expected to speak with Russian President Putin this week on ways to end the Ukraine war, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN on Sunday after returning from what he described as a "positive" meeting with Putin in Moscow. (RTRS)
• US envoy Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, emphasized on Sunday that there are still challenges to be worked out before Russia agrees to a ceasefire, much less a final peaceful resolution to the war. (RTRS)
• Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on Saturday he had urged Kyiv's Western allies to give "a clear position" on security guarantees including about a potential foreign troop contingent on Ukrainian soil with a U.S. backstop. (RTRS)
• Conditions demanded by Russia to agree to a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine show that Moscow does not really want peace, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday. (RTRS)
• UK PM Starmer said on Saturday that Western allies other than the U.S. were stepping up preparations to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia, with defence chiefs set to firm up "robust plans" next week. (RTRS)
• The US will keep attacking Yemen's Houthis until they end attacks on shipping, the U.S. defense secretary said on Sunday, as the Iran-aligned group signaled it could escalate in response to deadly U.S. strikes the day before. (RTRS)
• The Trump administration is considering issuing sweeping travel restrictions for the citizens of dozens of countries as part of a new ban. (RTRS)
• Canada’s Defence Minister said they are reconsidering F-35 purchases amid tensions with Washington and are having conversations with other fighter jet makers. (Newsquawk)
• EU explores new military intelligence satellites to cut reliance on US. (FT)
• Chinese President Xi Jinping has declined an invitation to visit Brussels for a summit to mark the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties. (FT)
• Turkish President Erdogan has spoken by phone with U.S. President Trump and discussed efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine and to restore stability in Syria, Erdogan's office said on Sunday. (RTRS)

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EQUITIES:

• Oracle is accelerating talks with the White House on a deal to run TikTok, though significant concerns remain about what role the app’s Chinese founders will play in its ongoing U.S. operation. (Politico)
• OpenAI and Elon Musk have agreed to fast-track a trial over OpenAI's for-profit shift. (RTRS)
• Berkshire Hathaway raised its holdings in five Japanese trading houses, regulatory filings showed on Monday. (RTRS)
• Alphabet is spinning out laser-based internet company Taara from its “moonshot” incubator, hoping to turbocharge the start-up that provides high-bandwidth services to hard-to-reach areas in competition with Elon Musk’s Starlink network of satellites. (FT)
• Baidu said on Sunday it has launched two new AI models, including a new reasoning-focused model that it said rivalled DeepSeek's model, as it vies to stand out in a fiercely competitive AI race. (RTRS)
• Samsung Electronics rose 5.3% on Monday, the biggest one-day percentage gain in four months. Market sentiment was buoyed by expectations that Nvidia could express positive opinions regarding Samsung's high-bandwidth memory chips at this week's GTC event. (WSJ)
• BMW Group will integrate Huawei HiCar, the Chinese tech conglomerate's car mobile app connecting devices with vehicles, into its locally produced new models in 2026. (RTRS)
• Volkswagen AG and its long-standing partner FAW Group will launch 11 new models exclusively for the Chinese market as it seeks to shore up declining market share in the world’s biggest auto market. (BBG)
• AstraZeneca bought Belgian biotech company EsoBiotec in a deal valued at up to $1 billion, to expand its cell-therapy portfolio. (WSJ)
• Ramelius Resources wants to acquire Spartan Resources to create a larger gold-mining company that’s more appealing to investors, in a deal that values Spartan around 2.4 billion Australian dollars. (WSJ)