14th November 2025

MACRO

Trump Administration Prepares Tariff Exemptions for Food

The Trump administration is preparing broad exemptions to certain tariffs in an effort to ease elevated food prices that have provoked anxiety for American consumers. (New York Times)

US Employment and Energy Policy Updates

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dipped to a seasonally adjusted 227,543 for the week ended November 8 from 228,899 in the prior week. The US government has hired 50,000 employees since President Trump took office, with the new staff largely in national security positions reflecting the administration’s policy focus. The Trump administration rescinded restrictions on oil drilling in Alaska’s mammoth state petroleum reserve, reversing a move by former President Biden that put an estimated 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil off limits. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

UK Budget and Wage Data

Gilts have reopened lower with sterling pressured after reports UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering dropping plans to raise the headline rates of income tax and a slew of other levies at the coming budget, prompting questions over how she will make up for a revenue shortfall. UK wages barely grew last month, according to the REC and KPMG survey, offering the Bank of England more confidence that inflationary pressures are easing. (Bloomberg)

China Economic Momentum Weakens Further

Signs of weakness in China’s economy stretched into October, with momentum in retail sales and industrial production slowing. Retail sales have slowed for five consecutive months as of October, the longest streak of deceleration since 2021. Investment and the property market continued to struggle, with fixed-asset investment notching the sharpest slowdown in years. China’s steel production had the weakest October since 2021. Banks in Asia are getting caught in the latest flare-ups in China’s real estate crisis, as more than $1 billion in property-backed loans is at risk of default unless extension or refinancing deals can be reached. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

China Household Investment Shifts

Chinese households are piling back into the stock market, suggesting their net withdrawal in September may have just been a blip. China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10 times its official figures as it quietly tries to diversify away from the US dollar, say analysts. Chinese investors should be aware of risks in gold price volatility and avoid making singular bets on the bullion market, according to a report in the China Securities Journal. China has found its first super-large, low-grade gold deposit in Liaoning province. (Bloomberg, Financial Times, China Securities Journal, Xinhua)

China Power Generation and AI Infrastructure

China’s massive buildout of power generation capacity will give it a leg up over the US in the race to expand data centers fueling artificial intelligence. China’s power generation surged the most since February 2024 in October as a heat wave swamped the southern part of the country, with coal power plants picking up the slack amid slow growth in renewables. China will see its first cold wave of the season in the coming days, which may impact power demand. (Bloomberg)

China Policy Commentary

China’s Shanghai Securities Newspaper notes monetary policy alone can’t fix weak prices. China needs to gradually shift toward a model that emphasizes promoting consumption and improving people’s livelihoods, experts are cited as saying. China still needs to increase investable assets in yuan to promote its global use, PBOC’s Deputy Governor Tao Ling says, adding there’s a long road ahead for yuan internationalization. China’s property market weakness will continue for some time, former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei says, adding expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are needed. (Shanghai Securities, Bloomberg)

Japan Corporate Governance and Economic Outlook

Japan’s PM Takaichi said in parliament that she thinks there has been a trend of firms focusing too much on shareholders. She said she will revise the corporate governance code so that companies will appropriately distribute resources not just to shareholders but to employees, saying she wants firms to not overly hoard capital, but effectively use it to invest in people including through wage hikes. Takaichi said on Friday it was hard to set a numerical target for minimum wages now, as doing so could hurt small firms burdened with rising labour costs. Japan’s economy likely shrank by the most in two years over the summer, with figures out Monday poised to offer PM Takaichi some potential justification for compiling a hefty economic package. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

Japan Currency Intervention Debate

Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said a weak yen could push up CPI through import costs. Former BOJ official Toru Sasaki expects Japan to hold off intervening unless the yen falls below 165 to the dollar. “Conducting yen-buying intervention at a time Japan’s real interest rates remain deeply negative would be wasting foreign reserves.” Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities, said given the administration doesn’t seem to prioritize combatting a weak yen, it would take a slide below 155 per dollar to escalate verbal warnings and a fall below 160 to contemplate direct intervention. (Reuters)

US-Switzerland Trade Progress

The US and Switzerland edged closer to a trade deal on Thursday to reduce President Trump’s crippling 39% tariffs on Swiss imports and shrink Switzerland’s trade surplus with the US after talks in Washington. (Reuters)

Asia-Pacific Currency and Policy Developments

South Korea stepped up its defense of the won, which approached a 16-year low this week, as it pledged to take action in coordination with state-owned National Pension Service. South Korea plans to expand policy support for its auto industry in the wake of a trade deal struck between Seoul and Washington. Asian currencies from economies tied to the AI boom are poised to benefit the most against a sliding dollar next year, according to Sophia Drossos at Point72 Asset Management. Peru held borrowing costs at a three-year low after one of the lowest inflation rates in emerging markets cooled even further. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

Critical Minerals and Commodities

Canada plans to buy stakes in projects that will produce and process key minerals, as part of a broader effort to secure supplies of materials controlled by China. Goldman Sachs sees global oil demand growth rising for longer than previously expected on robust energy demand, just days after the IEA tempered its stance on an imminent peak. Wheat advanced to a four-month high as traders weighed the fallout from a major drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export hub for grains and oil. (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

Ukraine-Russia Escalation

Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s giant Black Sea port of Novorossiysk overnight, causing a fire at an oil terminal, as Moscow launched a massive air strike on Kyiv that killed four and damaged several residential buildings. Russia’s oil shipments through the Arctic Ocean are encountering increasing delays because of US sanctions, a fresh example of how the measures are adding friction to Moscow’s energy trade. (Bloomberg)

China-Japan Tensions Escalate

China demanded that Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi retract a remark about a possible conflict over Taiwan, while a state-run newspaper called it Tokyo’s “first threat of force” against Beijing in 80 years, as a diplomatic spat between the two Asian nations escalated. An FT article notes Xi Jinping’s purge of military officers raises doubts about China’s readiness for war. (Bloomberg, Financial Times)

US-South Korea Nuclear Submarine Talks

The US and South Korea are in private negotiations to jointly build nuclear-powered submarines for both navies, a potential major shift in their alliance that would go beyond the announcement made by the countries’ presidents two weeks ago. (Bloomberg)

Other Geopolitical Developments

Russia’s education system is undergoing a significant transformation, integrating military-style training and war topics into the curriculum from the youngest grades. India and Canada will work together to secure supply chains in critical minerals and clean energy, signaling a reset in bilateral ties amid trade tensions driven by US policies. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Amazon and Microsoft Challenge Nvidia China Exports

Amazon is joining Microsoft in supporting legislation that threatens to further limit Nvidia’s ability to export to China, a rare split between the chip designer and two of its biggest customers. (Wall Street Journal)

Applied Materials Guides Underwhelm

Applied Materials expects sales for its semiconductor equipment to get a boost in the back half of next year as manufacturers look to meet demand coming from the AI boom. Shares are down 5% in the overnight market after its near quarter guide was more underwhelming. (Wall Street Journal)

Media and Entertainment M&A Activity

Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix are preparing bids for Warner Bros. Discovery, according to Wall Street Journal sources. Alphabet’s Google submitted remedies to the European Commission after the bloc’s €2.95 billion fine over the dominance of the company’s advertising technology business, but stopped short of offering to sell parts of the business. (Wall Street Journal)

Boeing Strike Ends

Boeing’s unionized machinists ratified a new collective bargaining agreement Thursday, ending a nearly 15-week strike that took a toll on workers responsible for producing jet fighters. The contract raises average annual base pay to about $109,000 from $75,000 over its five-year term. (Wall Street Journal)

Tech and Finance Sector Updates

Palantir Technologies’ top British executive said it’s planning a “significant investment” in the UK to win military contracts, even as the software company has complained about slow traction in Europe. Citigroup is growing “rapidly” in China with reviving interest from investors and companies in the world’s second largest economy. Blue Origin took crucial steps toward its space-development goals Thursday, launching its orbital rocket for the first time with cargo and landing the rocket’s booster. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

China Tech Disappoints

Baidu shares fell as the newest version of its AI model underwhelmed investors, denting hopes for it to regain ground lost to peers. (Bloomberg)

Battery and Luxury Sectors

CATL remains in talks with Spain’s government over a plan to have 2,000 Chinese engineers, technicians and managers work on establishing a €4.1 billion manufacturing plant in Zaragoza. Richemont, the owner of upscale brands including Cartier, reported a pick-up in sales growth, propelled by its jewelry division and as hopes for recovery in the luxury sector emerge. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

Energy and Insurance Results

The idea that data centers can shut down during peak demand times—not requiring the buildout of power plants—is a concept that could cost utility customers billions of dollars, according to a new report. Swiss Re reported a sharp increase in Q3 net profit and said its results benefited from low natural-catastrophe losses. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

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