13th November 2025

MACRO

Government Shutdown Ends After 43 Days

Stocks found a bid late Wednesday after President Trump signed a spending package to reopen the government, ending a 43-day shutdown, with the House passing the measure 222 to 209. The legislation extends federal government funding through January 30 and includes full-year funding for the Agriculture Department, military construction, and the legislative branch. The resolution ensures paychecks for federal employees and rehires furloughed workers, but postpones the healthcare subsidies debate. US air travel disruptions will take days or longer to normalize, with airlines needing time to position crews. (Wall Street Journal)

Fed Signals Higher Bar for Rate Cuts

Fed’s Collins, who voted for both of the Fed’s policy-rate reductions this year, said Wednesday she sees a “relatively high bar” for additional easing in the near term, citing worries about elevated inflation. Increased oil supply from OPEC and its allies will continue to put pressure on crude prices next year, while LNG prices will likely fall later in the decade, according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

China Critical Minerals Manipulation Report

China for decades has sought to manipulate global critical minerals prices, using its control as an economic weapon to expand its manufacturing sector and its geopolitical influence, a US House of Representatives committee said Wednesday. A senior official at China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said Thursday they will announce a comprehensive plan to boost the new energy battery sector and promote its infrastructure usage. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will publish details of platinum and palladium stockpiles when it launches China’s first derivatives market for the precious metals. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

China Tech and Retail Show Mixed Signals

The Hang Seng index outperformed after Alibaba shares ripped on Bloomberg reports it is preparing for an overhaul of its mobile AI app to more closely resemble OpenAI’s ChatGPT, in addition to Baidu announcing two new AI chips. Singles’ Day sales in China reached approximately $238.30 billion, a 14% increase from last year, but analysts deemed the growth unimpressive due to extended promotional periods. (Newswires, Wall Street Journal)

Japan Inflation and Policy Outlook

Japan’s wholesale prices rose more than expected in October as the cost of rice and other food remained stubbornly high, keeping pressure on the central bank to resume interest-rate increases. BOJ Governor Ueda said the central bank is aiming to achieve moderate inflation backed by wage growth, adding underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the 2% target. Traders are increasingly skeptical that Japan’s new government will be able to shore up the yen by direct intervention as the currency slumps toward levels that previously drew authorities into the market. Far more Japanese companies are optimistic about business conditions under PM Takaichi than pessimistic, with the vast majority aiming for next year’s pay hikes to at least match this year’s. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

UK Economic and Budget Developments

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in Q3, beneath the expected 0.2% rise, as car production was dragged down to a 73-year low by the fallout from the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover. UK Chancellor Reeves should get billions of pounds of extra room in her upcoming budget, UK Treasury officials believe, thanks to her plan to cut household bills and bring down inflation. Officials have asked the fiscal watchdog to take into account measures on energy bills, rail fares, and other regulated prices. UK PM Starmer apologized to Health Secretary Streeting, trying to contain fallout from allegations of cabinet plots against his leadership. (Guardian, Bloomberg)

EU Trade and Regulatory Initiatives

The European Union is set to propose a plan to the US that would implement the next phase of the trade agreement the two sides reached this summer. The EU has called for a bloc-wide handling fee on small packages ordered online from platforms such as Shein, Temu, and Alibaba to be imposed in early 2026, over two years earlier than scheduled. The UK and several South American nations are preparing to launch trade talks as rising tariffs disrupt global commerce. (Bloomberg, Financial Times)

Asia-Pacific Labor and Currency Movements

Australian employment surged in October as firms took on more full-time workers, pulling the jobless rate down from a four-year high and bolstering views that the current easing cycle may have run its course. New Zealand saw a record number of citizens depart in the 12 months through September as a sluggish economy forces more people to look offshore for better paying jobs. The South Korean won is approaching its weakest level since the global financial crisis, adding pressure on the central bank to protect the currency. The Malaysian ringgit, Asia’s best-performing currency this year, is nearing a four-year high. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Emerging Markets Updates

Citigroup is advising investors to position for gains in the Indian rupee amid signs that a US trade deal is imminent. India approved changes to royalty rates for several critical minerals, as part of efforts to boost domestic mining. Indonesia is close to a wipeout of this year’s government bond market inflows as global funds rush for the exit. The US drew nearly $900 million of its IMF reserves as Argentina received an equivalent amount ahead of a critical debt payment, transactions analysts pinned on Washington’s effort to bolster Javier Milei’s government. (Bloomberg, Financial Times)

GEOPOLITICAL

Ukraine Funding and Russia-Indonesia Concerns

EU finance ministers will tackle Thursday how to fund Ukraine from next year, with the European Commission hoping to rally support for a loan using Russian state assets frozen in the bloc. Russia’s gasoline prices at the pump inched lower for the first time in more than a year, bringing some respite after intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries pushed prices to record levels. Australia signaled lingering unease Thursday over whether Russia may seek access to an air base in eastern Indonesia. (Financial Times, Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Alibaba AI Overhaul and China Chip Push

Alibaba is preparing an overhaul of its main mobile AI app in the coming months to help it more closely resemble OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Alibaba plans to start by updating the existing “Tongyi” apps and renaming them “Qwen,” then gradually add agentic-AI features to support shopping on platforms including the main Taobao marketplace. The end goal is to try and make Qwen a fully functioning AI agent, with plans to eventually expand globally. Baidu shares rallied after it unveiled two new semiconductors for AI Thursday, saying the products can provide Chinese companies with powerful, low-cost, and domestically controlled computing power. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

Nvidia Supply Chain Control and Gray Market

A Wall Street Journal investigation traced how a chain of deals across several countries got Nvidia’s chips inside a data center in Indonesia’s capital for a Chinese AI company. There is no evidence to suggest the deals violated US law. Nvidia is set to adjust its AI server ODM shipment model to exert tighter control over system assembly processes. Quanta’s AI server production capacity is expected to double next year, with its AI-related revenue projected to post triple-digit growth in 2026 amid ramping Nvidia server orders. (Wall Street Journal, DigiTimes, Economic Daily)

Big Tech AI Infrastructure Expansion

Cisco Systems raised its fiscal year outlook after profit and revenue increased in its latest quarter, driven by demand for its AI products. Microsoft plans to use access to OpenAI’s development of custom AI semiconductors to help its own chip effort. “As they innovate even at the system level, we get access to all of it,” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on a podcast. Elon Musk is making significant strides to develop a comprehensive semiconductor manufacturing supply chain in the US, with the fan-out panel-level packaging (FOPLP) plant in Texas reaching the equipment delivery phase and aiming to commence volume production by late Q3 2026. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, DigiTimes)

Prediction Markets and Proxy Advisory Investigations

Polymarket has begun live testing its US exchange by quietly opening up to some users and matching trades ahead of its planned relaunch in the American betting market. FanDuel and DraftKings are leaving Nevada over predictions markets bets. The Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis violated antitrust laws through their business of guiding shareholder votes on contentious topics. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

Auto Sector Strategic Investments

Toyota Motor confirmed it will plow as much as $10 billion into the US over the next five years to boost its local operations, less than a month after President Trump flagged the Japanese carmaker planned such an investment. Volkswagen and Rivian Automotive’s joint venture, RV Tech, has made progress on delivering an EV electrical and software platform for Volkswagen to compete with Tesla and Chinese rivals. Rio Tinto will mothball a $2.4 billion lithium project in Serbia, as the mining giant’s new CEO aims to simplify the business and focus on quicker growth options. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

European Corporates Mixed Results

Siemens posted higher Q4 revenue but a decline in net profit that missed consensus. The company assumes the global economic environment will stabilize, targeting comparable revenue growth of 6% to 8% for fiscal 2026. Germany’s Merck reported higher Q3 earnings and sales helped by organic growth across its three businesses. Burberry sales rose more than expected Thursday, driven by stronger Chinese demand. Rolls-Royce reiterated its full-year profit guidance as strong demand for jet engines bolsters its order book. Deutsche Telekom lifted its 2025 guidance again to reflect the UScellular acquisition consolidation. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

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