10th November 2025

MACRO

Risk Markets Rebound on Shutdown Progress

Risk markets are rebounding Monday amid optimism for an end to the US government shutdown, Trump touting stimulus checks, and bullish comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Gold is breaking higher, Treasuries are unwinding their bid from the end of last week, and the dollar is choppy. The Senate late Sunday cleared a critical procedural hurdle in its drive to end the record-long government shutdown after Democrats provided enough votes to advance a measure designed to end the more than month-long impasse. (Newswires, Wall Street Journal)

Trump Floats $2,000 Tariff “Dividend”

US President Trump suggested in a Truth Social post that tariff revenue could be used to fund payments of at least $2,000 to most Americans without offering further details about the payouts or who would qualify. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump’s suggestion could come via the tax cuts passed in his signature economic policy bill earlier this year. White House economic adviser Hassett warned in a Sunday interview that US economic growth in Q4 could be negative if the federal shutdown drags on. (Truth Social, ABC, CBS)

US-China Relations Show Further Thaw

FBI Director Kash Patel visited China last week to discuss fentanyl and law enforcement issues following the Trump-Xi summit. China announced Monday it will make adjustments to the catalogue of drug-related precursor chemicals and will require licenses for export of certain chemicals to the US, Canada, and Mexico. China suspended a ban on exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US, though the three metals remain subject to broader export controls requiring Beijing licenses. The US and China suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Shutdown Chaos Escalates

Hundreds of thousands of travelers had flights delayed or canceled Sunday in the worst day for disruptions since the shutdown start, as Transportation Secretary Duffy warned of worse to come before Thanksgiving. The FAA is slated to limit business jets and other private flights to some of the country’s largest airports to ease strains on air-traffic personnel. A federal appeals court denied the Trump administration’s bid to avoid fully funding federal food-assistance benefits for November, meaning the government will have to make payments within 48 hours unless the Supreme Court intervenes. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

Fed’s Williams Warns on Inequality Risks

Fed’s Williams warned in the Financial Times that mounting problems facing poorer Americans are leaving the world’s most important economy exposed to risks of a downturn, highlighting the “balancing act” facing central bankers considering whether to cut rates again in December. Williams also pushed back on calls to end QT earlier than the December 1st target. Dollar volatility has tumbled as currency markets move past the “Trump shock,” with investor expectations of US currency swings falling to lowest since before last year’s presidential election. (Financial Times)

Japan’s Policy Pivot Continues

The Bank of Japan should avoid raising rates in December and wait at least until January to support a fragile economy, Takuji Aida, an economist chosen to join a key government panel, told the Nikkei. However, BOJ policymakers saw a growing case to raise rates in the near term, with some calling for the need to ensure companies’ wage-hike momentum will be sustained. Japan’s economic stimulus package is set to include tax cuts to spur investment focused around 17 key industries, including AI and semiconductors, and multi-year budget allocations. PM Takaichi said she would not rule out lowering the country’s sales tax rate as a future option. (Nikkei, Reuters)

China Eases Nexperia Chip Export Controls

China has granted exemptions to export controls on Nexperia chips for civilian applications, a move that will help relieve supply shortages for carmakers and automotive suppliers. China’s producer price deflation eased in October and consumer prices returned to positive territory as the government steps up efforts to curb over-capacity and cut-throat competition among firms. (Reuters)

UK Budget Raid on Pensions

Rachel Reeves is drawing up a £2 billion raid on UK retirement savings by reducing tax benefits from salary sacrifice pension schemes ahead of the Budget this month. The government’s plan to cap the tax benefits of salary sacrifice schemes will erode trust in the savings system and strike a “reckless” hit on businesses and jobs, according to opposition parties and pensions experts. UK employers expect to raise wages by 3% in the next 12 months, but some recruiters expect AI to shrink their workforce. (Financial Times, Reuters)

Emerging Markets Updates

RBA’s Hauser said Australia’s monetary policy faces an unusual challenge as the economy began recovering last year with demand still above potential output, suggesting little room for near-term policy easing. India’s power grid is struggling to absorb a surge in solar power installations, leading to more curtailment that threatens the build-out of renewables. Malaysia’s data center capacity will more than quadruple beyond 2026 to 4GW from 835MW now, to become one of the largest data center markets in the Asia-Pacific region. (Reuters, Bloomberg, DigiTimes)

GEOPOLITICAL

Orban Secures Trump Economic Support

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said US President Trump agreed to support his country’s economy if it came under a speculative attack, although he didn’t offer specifics about a deal. Japanese PM Takaichi defended her description of a conflict over Taiwan as potentially amounting to an existential risk for Japan after a Chinese diplomat accused her of meddling in Beijing’s internal affairs. (Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Nvidia CEO Huang Asks TSMC for More Supply

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Saturday he had asked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing for more chip supplies as AI demand remains strong. “The business is very strong, and it’s growing month by month, stronger and stronger,” Huang told reporters, adding Nvidia’s three AI memory chip suppliers—SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron—have all scaled up “tremendous capacity” to support the company. (Bloomberg)

TSMC Shows Slowing Growth but Massive Expansion

TSMC reported slowing growth in its October revenue, although bulls point to an exceptionally strong October 2024 as a factor. Sales rose 16.9% year-over-year, the slowest pace since February 2024. However, TSMC will have 12 or more chip fabs/advanced packaging plants under construction in Taiwan next year due to strong demand for 2nm manufacturing amid a “massive explosion in demand for AI chips.” TSMC will have to expand 3nm production lines as well because capacity is so tight and demand so strong. Powertech, Taiwan’s second-biggest chip packaging firm, has won big orders from US AI giants scrambling to find capacity, with its 2026 advanced capacity fully booked. (Newswires, Liberty Times Net, UDN)

Pfizer Wins $10 Billion Obesity Drug Battle

Pfizer has clinched a $10 billion deal for obesity drug developer Metsera, capping a fierce biotech bidding war between the New York-based pharma giant and Danish rival Novo Nordisk. This marks Pfizer’s major push into the lucrative weight-loss drug market. (Reuters)

Crypto Treasury Trade Collapses

A Wall Street Journal article notes shares of “crypto-treasury” companies, like Strategy, have fallen significantly, with Strategy’s value dropping from $128 billion at its peak to $70 billion. The year’s hottest crypto trade is crumbling as the strategy faces market skepticism. (Wall Street Journal)

Corporate Leadership Changes

Diageo appointed former Tesco boss Dave Lewis as its CEO Monday, ending a months-long search and turning to an outsider to steer the world’s largest spirits maker through a challenging period for the drinks industry. Roche said its fenebrutinib drug candidate met primary goals in two late-stage trials for multiple sclerosis, reducing attacks or delaying disability progression. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

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